033
FXUS61 KGYX 291616
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1216 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM DAY IS IN STORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FRESHENS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AT LEAST NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND BRINGS MORE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1215 PM...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING US INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OF NOTE, KEPT SKIES A LITTLE CLEARER FURTHER INTO THE
AFTERNOON, AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN SOME SPOTS.
935 AM...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK, DID SOME MINOR UPDATES FOR
T/TD/WINDS, BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE SUNNY AND WARM, WITH CIRRUS
MOVING IN LATE. HIGHS SHOULD GET TO AROUND 80 IN MUCH OF NH AND
INTERIOR SW ME. COOLER IN THE MTNS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND ON THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
6:40AM UPDATE... TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF MOSTLY IN THE 30S
THIS MORNING, WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. BUT
THAT DOESN'T STOP TEMPS FROM WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. OTHER THAN THE COOLER START, NO NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE AS TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY RISE THROUGH THE MORNING ONCE THE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS.
PREVIOUS...
TEMPERATURES RISE EVEN WARMER TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION PUSHES TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF INTERIOR
MAINE. HOWEVER, WITH THIS WIND DIRECTION COMING OFF THE WATERS
INTO THE MIDCOAST AND CENTRAL MAINE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER,
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S RIGHT AT THE COAST, TO THE MID 70S
THROUGH THE KENNEBEC VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN MAINE COAST WILL SIT
RIGHT ON A STRONG TEMPERATURES GRADIENT MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S RIGHT ON THE BEACHES AT TIMES, WHILE
READINGS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED JUST A COUPLE MILES INLAND.
THE DAY STARTS OFF MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MORE
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH THE CANADIAN BORDER AND NORTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE
SUNSET, BUT THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER DARK.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING. THE TIMING OF
THESE STORMS HAS MOVED A LITTLE EARLIER SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS
GIVES A GREATER CHANCE THAT THE STORMS WILL MORE ORGANIZED WHEN
THEY ARRIVE, AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, LIKELY WEAKENING TO PRIMARILY SHOWERS
BY THE TIME THEY MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT DOESN'T FULLY CLEAR THE
COASTLINE UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE TOMORROW, MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE 50S
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT SPENT IN THE
60S. FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER COOLER AIR DOES
ARRIVE BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OVER, BRINGING LOWS INTO THE LOW 40S
TO UPPER 30S THERE.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDES ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY
TOMORROW, BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TODAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS
GENERALLY WARM INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS ON DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND
MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE GUSTING TO AROUND 25
MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
04Z LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DRY
PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE MIXED IN BETWEEN.
PREVIOUSLY...
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S, ALTHOUGH THE SEABREEZE WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THE COAST IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY. WE SHOULD START
SEEING MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A 500MB
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TURNING THE WEATHER TURNING
MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT THEN
ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURES RIDING ALONG IT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WE MAY TO ADD A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY NH) IF WE CAN GET
SOME CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PROBABLY BRING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
MOSTLY LIKELY IN WESTERN ME AND ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP WESTERN ME COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S
WHILE SOUTHERN NH COULD STILL REACH THE 70S.
BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT EAST OF THE
AREA, ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLOWER IN DOING SO WITH THE TROUGH
BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR BOTH
SCENARIOS, BUT THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LOOK TO PUSH THE
TROUGH TO THE EAST, WHICH WOULD BE A DRYING TREND FOR THESE
DAYS WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR PREVAILS TODAY, THEN SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AT HIE AND LEB EARLY THIS EVENING. WHERE RAIN DOES
FALL, SOME LOCALIZED FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. BRIEF SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING. VFR
RETURNS FULLY BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
THE AROUND 20-25KT THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR ALL SITES FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AND INCREASING POTENTIAL OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO FOG AND
IFR STRATUS DURING THIS TIME.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FRESHENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE WEST. SEAS LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW, WITH SOME
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING
THE DAY.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS UNDER SCA LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PROBABLY
INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO CROSS THROUGH SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH SCA CONDITIONS REMAINING POSSIBLE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TIDE OF 11.6FT
AT PORTLAND AROUND 1-2AM. WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, WATER LEVELS LIKELY RISE TO NEAR FLOOD
STAGE TONIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...COMBS/TUBBS
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