359
FXUS61 KGYX 292254
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TOP TEN KIND OF SPRING DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT, BUT RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER BUT STILL PLEASANT SPRING DAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH
THE SPRING WARMTH INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY MORE WEEKEND RAIN ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
645 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWESTWARD TO UPSTATE NY. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND
LIKELY REACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
A A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THAT AREA ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
PREVIOUSLY...
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE AND SFC LOW HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR E AND HAS
FOR GOOD SW SFC–MID LEVEL FLOW AND WAA. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT
IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THAT FRONT, THERE IS SOME CONVECTION STARTING
TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL, AS WELL AS EASTERN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN QUEBEC. THESE WILL FLARE UP TO OUR E THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL LIKELY NOT GET INTO THE FAR NW ZONES UNTIL 00Z OR
LATER. THE FRONT BECOMES LESS DYNAMIC AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS VERY LIMITED, BUT
COULD SEE A FEW TSRA IN THE MTNS AND THE CT VLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASES SW FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING VERY QUICKLY, EXCEPT IN THOSE AREAS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE CAPITAL REGION, WHERE THE MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN
PUSHING INSHORE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALREADY. TEMPS SHOULD DROP
SOMEWHAT EVERYWHERE AFTER THE FROM GOES THROUGH IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE MTNS TO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE S. ALSO ACROSS S ZONES, MAY NOT SEE
ANY SHOWERS AT ALL OVERNIGHT, AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
WEAKENS.
ON A PERSONAL NOTE, THIS IS MY LAST OPERATIONAL SHIFT HERE AT
WFO GYX AND FOR THE NWS, AS I HEAD OFF TO RETIREMENT. I ARRIVED
HERE IN ME ALMOST 19 YEARS AGO, IN A STATE OF FLUX, AND ENDED
UP STAYING THIS LONG THANKS TO THE WONDERFUL AREA AND THE
CHALLENGING FORECASTS. I COULD’T HAVE DONE IT ANYWHERE ELSE.
DURING MY TIME HERE, I’VE GOTTEN TO WORK WITH AN EXCELLENT CREW
OF FOLKS IN THE OFFICE, AND SOME GREAT TV AND MEDIA METS IN ME
AND NH, AS WELL AS SOME HELPFUL AND FRIENDLY MEMBERS OF THE EM
COMMUNITY. A BIG ROUND OF THANKS TO ALL OF YOU, BECAUSE YOU'VE
ALL HELPED ME OUT AT SOME POINT ALONG THE WAY. I KNOW I’M GONNA
MISS THE FORECASTING, BUT NOT THE SCHEDULE. TURNS OUT THERE’S
SOME TRUTH TO THIS STATEMENT - DO WHAT YOU LOVE, AND YOU’LL
NEVER WORK A DAY IN YOUR IN YOUR LIFE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY EARLY WED MORNING, BUT MAY SEE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z, AFTER WHICH, SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AS WNW WINDS PICK UP AND DIRER AIR MOVES IN.
IT WILL BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT
TIMES, BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY AFTER THE EARLY DAY CLOUDS CLEAR.
HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE N, TO THE MID 60S IN THE
S.
WED NIGHT WILL SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS SFC HIGH BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. WITH CLEAR SKIES, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GOOD RAD
COOLING AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE N TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOW 40S IN THE S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL END THE WEEK WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
IMPACTS: KEEPING AN EYE ON FRI IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH CLEARING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD BE
ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
FORECAST DETAILS: ONSHORE FLOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLER THANKS TO
THE MARINE INFLUENCE. TO THE WEST HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
MILD SPRING DAY.
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
MTNS...SO I HAVE LIKELY POP FOR THOSE ZONES. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REALLY REVOLVES ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING IF ANY FRI.
IF WE CAN BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...THERE WOULD BE A
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF CAPE/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE HAS SOME SMALL RISK OVER SEVERE STORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD ANY SORT
OF SEVERE RISK TO THE FORECAST GRIDS...BUT I DID MAKE SURE THERE
WAS SOME THUNDER.
A TRAILING WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND NOW MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE
REGION SAT. I TRENDED POP UP FOR THIS PERIOD. BASED ON ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DRY PERIODS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FRI...AND AGAIN MON/TUE. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH RAINFALL. SO MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON HOW AND WHERE THE UPPER LOW FORMS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE SOME SHRA AND OUTSIDE CHC OF TSRA AT KLEB/KHIE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WNW WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT DURING
THE DAY WED.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THU. WARM FRONT
AND PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA BY
FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING OR LIFTING OF THE CIGS
ON FRI BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR
ON SAT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SUN BUT THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...THE SW FLOW AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING, AND THEN AFTER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT WNW BUR CONTINUE AT SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE DAY WED, BEFORE SUBSIDING WED EVENING.
LONG TERM...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
WILL POTENTIALLY BRING MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
PATTERN BEYOND SAT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER SCA
CONDITIONS LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND IF OFFSHORE WINDS BECOME
GUSTY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TIDE OF 11.6FT
AT PORTLAND AROUND 1-2AM. WITH SEAS BUILDING SOME FROM TODAY
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, WATER LEVELS COULD RISE TO AROUND FLOOD
LEVEL TONIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
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