761
FXUS61 KGYX 300806
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
406 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH THE SPRING
WARMTH INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BEFORE A WARM FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ALONG A COLD
FRONT FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY MORE WEEKEND RAIN ON SATURDAY
SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH AND NEAR NEW
ENGLAND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE BUILDING HIGH BRINGS A
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25-30
MPH MUCH OF THE DAY. IT ALSO BRINGS DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR AS WELL, BUT HIGHS STILL WARM INTO THE 60S DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH HIGHS NEARING 70 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION ALSO PREVENTS A SEA
BREEZE AT THE COAST, ALLOWING TEMPS TO BE ACTUALLY BE WARMER IN
SOME SPOTS THAN YESTERDAY. THE DOWNSLOPE MIXING HELPS TO BRING
LOW DEW POINTS TO THE SURFACE, WITH RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30
PERCENT SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS IN MAINE, AND BELOW 20 PERCENT
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
WINDS QUICKLY EASE THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS ALLOWS TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS. WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID 30S, A FROST
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT, COINCIDING WITH THE
MEDIAN LAST FREEZE DATE OF THE SEASON.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE TOMORROW AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SET UP BRINGS AN INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE COAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTER
INITIALLY REACHING THE 50S, TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARM FURTHER INLAND, WITH HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ALONG WITH THESE
WARMER TEMPS, RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20S AGAIN TOMORROW AWAY
FROM THE COASTLINE. HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY FROM
THE WEST AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A STRAY SPRINKLE CAN'T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AS PERIODS OF WET AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE: PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL END THE WEEK WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
IMPACTS: KEEPING AN EYE ON FRI IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH CLEARING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD BE
ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
FORECAST DETAILS: ONSHORE FLOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLER THANKS TO
THE MARINE INFLUENCE. TO THE WEST HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
MILD SPRING DAY.
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
MTNS...SO I HAVE LIKELY POP FOR THOSE ZONES. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REALLY REVOLVES ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING IF ANY FRI.
IF WE CAN BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...THERE WOULD BE A
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF CAPE/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE HAS SOME SMALL RISK OVER SEVERE STORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD ANY SORT
OF SEVERE RISK TO THE FORECAST GRIDS...BUT I DID MAKE SURE THERE
WAS SOME THUNDER.
A TRAILING WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND NOW MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE
REGION SAT. I TRENDED POP UP FOR THIS PERIOD. BASED ON ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DRY PERIODS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FRI...AND AGAIN MON/TUE. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH RAINFALL. SO MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON HOW AND WHERE THE UPPER LOW FORMS.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 25KT DEVELOP BY MID MORNING, AND THEN
EASE THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM... WARM FRONT AND PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY IFR
CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA BY FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
CLEARING OR LIFTING OF THE CIGS ON FRI BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR ON SAT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED SUN BUT THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. A PERIOD OF FAIR CONDITIONS MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE WATERS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THEN FRESHENS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
LONG TERM...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
WILL POTENTIALLY BRING MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
PATTERN BEYOND SAT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER SCA
CONDITIONS LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND IF OFFSHORE WINDS BECOME
GUSTY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...LEGRO
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