018
FXUS61 KGYX 301926
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
326 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH THE SPRING
WARMTH INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BEFORE A WARM FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ALONG A COLD
FRONT FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY MORE WEEKEND RAIN ON SATURDAY
SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH AND NEAR NEW
ENGLAND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THE AIR MASS
REMAINS QUITE DRY SO TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER DARK. WHILE I
AM MORE CONFIDENT ON COLD TEMPS...AND I AM LESS SO ON FROST. THE
DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE IT HARD TO GET FROST TO FORM. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE EARLY GREEN UP IN MANY PLACES THIS FROST MAY BE
PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION. I HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY TO COVER THIS THREAT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY THU WITH WARM TEMPS AND VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS. MIN RH WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND MAYBE INTO
THE TEENS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR WEST OF A DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW. IT WILL BE LESS WINDY THAN TODAY...AND
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE WHERE WINDS MAY GUST RH WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA VERY LATE. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HI-RES GUIDANCE IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS/FOG POTENTIAL MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI. BUT THAT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED TO
THE THU NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST IF THINGS SPEED UP.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TO START FRIDAY, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME FOG
AROUND WESTERN ME TOO, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN NH AS MIXING INCREASES,
AND SOME CLEARING MAY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN ME TOO. EASTERN
AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO STAY COOLER AND HOLD ONTO THE LOW STRATUS
AS WELL AS FOG IN SOME PLACES. THE CLEARING FOR WESTERN AREAS ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM UP IN THE 70S AND WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA, BUT THESE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ME WHERE THE
LOW CEILINGS HOLD ON. I DO THINK FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA BUT MORE LIKELY IN WESTERN ME.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFERING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THERE'S STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THE TREND IS LOWER (BUT NOT ZERO)
CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS LOOKING TO BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR ON SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT OF A SLOWER TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE IN CLEARING THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE ECMWF
CAMP. THE GFS INDICATES SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AND IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY AND MAYBE EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SO POPS
WILL NEED TO BE EITHER LOWERED OR INCREASED ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON
HOW MODEL TRENDS GO.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE MAY END UP BEING CLOSE ENOUGH TO A
500MB CUTOFF LOW TO GET SOME SHOWERS. THIS IS MORE SUPPORTED BY THE
ECMWF WITH THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE GFS
SUPPRESSES IT ACROSS THE SE US, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THU
EVENING. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AT COASTAL TAF SITES TO SOUTHEASTERLY. WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THU AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER. SOME AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE. THIS IS DUE TO A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM, BUT THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MAINLY VFR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH NH TERMINALS LIKELY TO RETURN TO VFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE RKD/AUG PROBABLY HOLD ONTO IFR TO LIFR STRATUS
AND FOG AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THE REST OF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BECOME MORE LIKELY
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN IN BREAKS OF
PRECIPITATION, FOG AND IFR TO LIFR REMAIN A POSSIBILITY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN ME TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. SCA
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS FALL BELOW 5 FT. WINDS TURN ONSHORE
THU AND A NICE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION THU NIGHT SOME FOG MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS FRI
MORNING.
LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, POTENTIALLY REACHING SCA
LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE EAST SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS. ALSO, EXPECTING FOG ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY DRY AIR MASS MEANS ONLY MODERATE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES. WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE ON THURSDAY IT WILL
BE ANOTHER VERY DRY DAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT, MAYBE EVEN THE UPPER TEENS. THE GOOD NEWS WILL
BE THAT WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE AND LESS GUSTY THAN TODAY. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ACTUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 40S AND 50S AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINTS RISE. CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS INCREASE FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...COMBS
AVIATION...COMBS/LEGRO
MARINE...COMBS/LEGRO
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