472
FXUS61 KGYX 010805
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
405 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BEFORE A WARM FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS TO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY MORE WEEKEND RAIN ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH AND NEAR
NEW ENGLAND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IT WILL BE LESS WINDY, WITH MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SEEING WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KTS IN ANY LAYER. TEMPS INCREASE
QUICK THIS MORNING WHERE CIRRUS IS LIMITED, WITH MORE OF THE
REGION SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND TOWARDS 70 THAN YESTERDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
DISPLACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST, ALLOWING A
SEABREEZE TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE THE
WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY FOR THE COAST AND POINTS INTERIOR WITH
THE SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT. GUST FACTOR FALLS OFF THIS EVENING,
BUT THE LIGHT SSE SFC WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS SET FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH PERHAPS
SOME THUNDER MIXED IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING FIRST ACROSS NH,
PROGRESSING INTO SOUTHERN ME AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A ELONGATED WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WHITES AND WESTERN ME
MOUNTAINS LIKELY SEE SHOWERS FIRST, BUT HIRES MODELS DO FILL IN
SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NH AND UP THE ME COAST EARLY FRI MORNING.
INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH NORTH, BUT WILL LIKELY
STILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGH FRI MORNING FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ME.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH, ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS SHOWERS
PULL AWAY SHOULD SPELL RAPID WARMING. THIS IS A POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD CAST MAY RETREAT
NORTH. HREF CLOUD LAYERS SHOW A FAIRLY ORGANIZED EROSION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS NH, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
FIRST THROUGH THE CT VALLEY AND THEN SOUTHERN PARTS. CLOUD BREAKS
WILL BE PIVOTAL, AND WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SHOT AT
75-80 DEGREES ON THE DAY...VS. UPPER 50S. THESE UPPER 50S LOOK
MOST LIKELY TOWARDS CENTRAL ME AND THE MIDCOAST WHERE MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE SLOW TO RID OF THE MORNING STRATUS AND
LINGERING COASTAL FOG FOR THE DAY.
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING IS MOST SUCCESSFUL, EXPECT A BIT OF
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THIS LEADS TO THE CHANCE FOR A
PASSING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN NH AND FAR WESTERN
ME. PROFILES ARE PRETTY DRY, AND THIS LIKELY LIMITS COVERAGE AS
AN EMBEDDED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EVENING. THE MOISTURE
ALSO LIMITS CAPE DEPTH AND THUS PUTS A CEILING ON THUNDER
INTENSITY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
10 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST NBM. A SLOW
MOVING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK NEAR
NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MOST
DAYS.
PREVIOUSLY...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ME WHERE THE
LOW CEILINGS HOLD ON. I DO THINK FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA BUT MORE LIKELY IN WESTERN ME.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFERING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THERE'S STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THE TREND IS LOWER (BUT NOT ZERO)
CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS LOOKING TO BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR ON SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT OF A SLOWER TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE IN CLEARING THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE ECMWF
CAMP. THE GFS INDICATES SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AND IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY AND MAYBE EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SO POPS
WILL NEED TO BE EITHER LOWERED OR INCREASED ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON
HOW MODEL TRENDS GO.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE MAY END UP BEING CLOSE ENOUGH TO A
500MB CUTOFF LOW TO GET SOME SHOWERS. THIS IS MORE SUPPORTED BY THE
ECMWF WITH THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE GFS
SUPPRESSES IT ACROSS THE SE US, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY WITH A SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT WITH SHRA MOVING IN
ACROSS NH, AND THE ME AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL. CEILINGS THEN TREND
TOWARDS MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THESE HOLD ON INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ME TERMINALS, BUT WILL TREND VFR
FOR NH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA WITH POSSIBLY SOME TS IS FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN NH. A PERIOD OF LIGHT LLWS IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR
POSSIBLE. THIS IS DUE TO A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MAINLY VFR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS
AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH NH
TERMINALS LIKELY TO RETURN TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
RKD/AUG PROBABLY HOLD ONTO IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG AFTER THE
PRECIP ENDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BECOME MORE LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN IN BREAKS OF PRECIPITATION,
FOG AND IFR TO LIFR REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN ME TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY BUT IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...BELOW SCA CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND PUSHES NORTH AND EAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE NEXT DAY, SPREADING
SHOWERS AND FOG OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT A SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHIFTS SE
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE EAST SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERE IS A
GENERAL SIGNAL FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS.
ALSO, EXPECTING FOG ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
FIRE WEATHER
WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE TODAY IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY DRY DAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER TEENS
TO 25 PERCENT. RH VALUES MAY HAVE A WIDE ENVELOP AS WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MIX IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE AND
LESS GUSTY THAN WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINTS RISE.
SHOWERS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...COMBS/SCHROETER
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