009
FXUS61 KGYX 011916
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BEFORE A WARM FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY MORE WEEKEND RAIN ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH AND
NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES VARYING SUBSTANTIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE SEA BREEZE HAS JUST STARTED MOVING IN, KEEPING COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 50S, WHILE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANQUIL
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOME CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN TONIGHT AS A
BROAD SURFACE LOW ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS
START MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
TOMORROW MORNING, THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN NEW ENGLAND. LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY AND FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BRING RISING AIR OVER A
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, ALLOWING FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF NEW HAMPSHIRE BY THE LATE MORNING,
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE. SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, ALLOWING FOR A RAPID
MIDDAY WARMUP. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT QUITE
CLEAR SKIES OUT ACROSS MOST OF MAINE. SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BRING SOME LOW STRATUS NORTHWARD, KEEPING MAINE LOCATIONS MOSTLY
INSULATED FROM THE WARMUP FORECAST ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOR
CONTEXT, HIGHS ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE LOOK TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
HIGHS ACROSS MAINE LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
A SMALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW EVENING, WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TOMORROW EVENING.
THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE, THOUGH SOME WIND
GUSTS OR PEA-SIZE HAIL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF THE STRONGER
CELLS. ONCE THESE STORMS DISSAPATE, CLOUDS START BREAKING UP ACROSS
NEW HAMPSHIRE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE 500 MB PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS
DOMINATED BY A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, THAT
CLOSES OFF OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
* THE AREA WILL SEE BENEFICIAL RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE BRINGS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: SATURDAY: SATURDAY MORNING IS TRENDING DRY AS THE
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE
COLUMN MOSTLY SATURATED, SO MAYBE THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF SUN
BREAKING THROUGH, BUT I WOULDN'T EXPECT A GREAT IMPROVEMENT ON
SKY COVER. AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S THROUGH THE INTERIOR, WITH THE COASTLINE AND
THE MOUNTAINS STAYING COOLER. THE FIRST SHOWERS LIKELY ENTER NEW
HAMPSHIRE MID-AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS MORE SCATTERED, AND
IF WE DO GET ENOUGH HEATING IT COULD BE MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL.
LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES 500+ J/KG ARE
ACHIEVABLE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, WHICH COULD AID IN
PRODUCING A PUNCHY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE
MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT VALUES AROUND AN
INCH SUGGEST SOME HEAVIER EMBEDDED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GENERALLY
ENSEMBLE QPF VALUES ARE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 0.25-0.5 INCHES
WITH SATURDAYS SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF THROUGH THE INTERIOR AS MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP SOMEWHERE IN
THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY ROTATING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE UP THAT BOUNDARY, LIGHT
SHOWERS PROBABLY LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS A
LITTLE QUICKER WITH MOVING THE FRONT ALONG, WHERE AS THE RRFS
KEEPS IT STALLED NEAR THE COASTLINE INTO THE AFTERNOON. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND STALL IT FURTHER NORTH,
KEEPING SHOWERS AROUND FOR EVERYONE. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE DOES EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MAY HELP TO REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BUT WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MEANDERING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, I WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN ON THE CLOUDIER SIDE FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH A BIT MORE CLEARING FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE 500 MB LOW INCHING
CLOSER AS WELL. HOW LONG THE HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD ON WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF TUESDAY STAYS DRY AND THE CURRENT NBM
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING, BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REQUIRES KEEPING AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
STAYS AROUND IN SOME CAPACITY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, AND SO
TOO WILL THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RESTRICTIONS LOWERING
OVERNIGHT. IFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TOMORROW EVENING,
RESTRICTIONS MAY LOWER AGAIN, AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
LOW STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS WESTERN ME. LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY KEEP RESTRICTIONS
DOWN AT WESTERN ME SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MAY START WITH
SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS AS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOP AS
EVENING RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS LIKELY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS AND 2-4FT SEAS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS PICK UP TO NEAR-SCA LEVELS
(20-25KTS) BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW, WITH SEAS OF 3-5FT
EXPECTED. WINDS SLACKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 12-16KTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 3-5FT
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ONSHORE UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY, THEN THEY WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...BARON
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