501
FXUS61 KGYX 021047
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING WARM FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS THIS MORNING, AND LATER FOG
TO THE MIDCOAST. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY SLOW, ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
650AM UPDATE...THUNDER CHANCES HAVE FALLEN OFF THIS MORNING AS
EARLIER CONVECTION BECAME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIP OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE,
WITH SOME AMOUNTS SURPASSING A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE ME/NH
FOOTHILLS. ADDED MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE MORNING
IN SOUTHERN ME AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH NH AND ME EARLY THIS
MORNING, SLOWLY TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER EARLY, MAINLY
ALONG AND JUST INTERIOR OF THE COAST.
LOWER OVERCAST CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THIS, THERE WILL BE THINNING OF
THE CLOUDS...FIRST OVER NH. IN THE WARM SECTOR, PATCHES OF SUN
WILL QUICKLY WARM THE SURFACE. FOR POINTS IN SW NH, THIS MAY
RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE STORY IS A
BIT LESS WARM CROSSING THE ME STATE BORDER, WHERE CLOUD CAST MAY
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF PEAK HEATING. HERE TEMPS LINGER IN THE
50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS.
EARLIER THINNING ACROSS NH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AS A TROUGH
PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE DRY AIR ALOFT, HIRES GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NH. THESE LOOK TO DEVELOP MID
AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED CAPE AND A WELL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
COMBATING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE CAPE/SHEAR IMBALANCE WILL
PROVE TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOST WILL
SIMPLY CONTAIN LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, AND A DOWNPOUR.
WHAT INTENSITY THE CELLS DO HAVE LIKELY DIMINISHES FURTHER
MOVING OVER THE MORE STABLE SFC CONDITIONS IN ME INTO THE
EVENING.
FOG DEVELOPS BEHIND THE MORNING SHOWERS FOR COASTAL ME
COMMUNITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HREF PROBS BRING THIS FOG
FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING, THICKENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CARRY ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOSING DAYTIME INSTABILITY. IT'S
VELOCITY SLOWS, AND WILL ONLY MAKE IT TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THE CHANCE FOR SOME DENSE FOG FOR
INTERIOR SOUTHERN ME OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD.
WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVERHEAD, IT WILL ACT AS A
GOOD FORCING AGENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT SOME MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT COULD PASS
THROUGH OR DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CAPE WILL BE THE BIGGER QUESTION ON THE DAY WITH FORCING AND
SHEAR TAKEN CARE OF W/ THE PROXIMITY TO COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION IN A MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. AREAL COVERAGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIKELY DICTATE WHETHER STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS OR
HAIL COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
1035 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST NBM. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRINGS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT MAY KEEP THINGS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY...
PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE 500 MB PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS
DOMINATED BY A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, THAT
CLOSES OFF OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
* THE AREA WILL SEE BENEFICIAL RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE BRINGS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP SOMEWHERE IN
THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY ROTATING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE UP THAT BOUNDARY, LIGHT
SHOWERS PROBABLY LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS A
LITTLE QUICKER WITH MOVING THE FRONT ALONG, WHERE AS THE RRFS
KEEPS IT STALLED NEAR THE COASTLINE INTO THE AFTERNOON. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND STALL IT FURTHER NORTH,
KEEPING SHOWERS AROUND FOR EVERYONE. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE DOES EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MAY HELP TO REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BUT WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MEANDERING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, I WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN ON THE CLOUDIER SIDE FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH A BIT MORE CLEARING FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE 500 MB LOW INCHING
CLOSER AS WELL. HOW LONG THE HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD ON WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF TUESDAY STAYS DRY AND THE CURRENT NBM
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING, BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REQUIRES KEEPING AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
STAYS AROUND IN SOME CAPACITY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, AND SO
TOO WILL THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING,
IMPROVING FOR NH TERMINALS LATER. FOR SOUTHERN ME TERMINALS, A
DOWNWARD TREND MAY CONTINUE FOR THE DAY AS IFR OR EVEN LIFR IS
FORECAST. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST AS THE DAY
GOES ON, AND WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES, FURTHER ADDING TO
RESTRICTIONS.
SHRA THIS MORNING LIFTS NE, WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NH. TS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NH. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA TERMINALS ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MAY START WITH
SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS AS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOP AS
EVENING RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS LIKELY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH A
BUILDING SURFACE INVERSION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT
MAY STALL NEAR THE COAST. FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ONSHORE UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY, THEN THEY WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...BARON/SCHROETER
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