351
FXUS61 KGYX 040220
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
WITH SOME LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE
THUNDER THREAT GOES AWAY TONIGHT BUT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AS THE
FRONT JUST BARELY MAKES IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE A PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY BUT THE BREAK IN RAIN IS ONLY BRIEF
AS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
1020 PM UPDATE...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED SW TO NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND CONVECTION
OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM UPSTATE
NY. DURING THIS LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOG HAS BECOME MORE
PREVALENT WITH FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HAVE MAINLY REFINED POPS WITH THIS UPDATE.
620 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE AND HAVE CANCELED
THE REMAINING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO WITH A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS PUSHES IN FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG DURING THE BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND HAVE MAINLY REFINED POPS AND FOG
COVERAGE WITH THIS UPDATE.
523 PM UPDATE...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS NOW CONFINED
ALONG THE NH/MA BORDER ACROSS HILLSBOROUGH AND ROCKINGHAM
COUNTIES. QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT HILLSBOROUGH AND ROCKINGHAM.
PREVIOUSLY...
A WARM FRONT REINFORCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THOSE SEVERE.
OVERALL THIS IS A PRETTY CLASSIC NORTHEAST SET UP. HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE. THERE IS MODERATE BULK SHEAR...AND ACTUALLY
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WE ARE STRUGGLING
TO ATTAIN ENOUGH CAPE TO SUSTAIN ROBUST UPDRAFTS BEFORE THE
SHEARS TEARS THEM APART. SO CORES HAVE BEEN SHORTER AND MORE
MARGINALLY SEVERE. THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WITH
THE SURGE OF STORMS COMING OUT OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE STORMS
THERE ARE ALREADY CLUSTERING TOGETHER AND MAY CONTINUE TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO A MORE LINEAR COMPLEX. THIS WILL TEND TO LOWER THE
HAIL THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...30 TO 40 KT OF 0-3 KM...I CANNOT
RULE OUT MESOVORTEX FORMATION WITHIN A LINE OF STORMS ESPECIALLY
IF BOWING SEGMENTS OR SURGES CAN STEP OUT OF THE LINE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SO WHILE IT IS NOT THE HIGHEST THREAT ON THE
LIST...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS LINE
OF STORMS PASSES.
PRECIP WILL ALL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THRU THE OVERNIGHT. ALONG
THE FRONT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL FORM AGAIN. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN ME
COAST INTO SEACOAST NH. VERY LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY SUN THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND START TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE
SHOWERS...IF THEY HAD MANAGED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
ALSO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH SUN WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ALONG IT. WHILE THERE DO APPEAR LIKE THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF STEADIER PRECIP EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DAY...THE
CONFIDENCE ON THAT TIMING IS TOO LOW TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 80
PERCENT POP AT THIS TIME. I DID MY BEST TO SHOW THE PERIODS AND
AREAS WHERE I THINK IT WILL BE MOST LIKELY THRU THE DAY.
EMBEDDED PRECIP MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT OVERALL THE QPF
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ROUTINE AND I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WATER
ISSUES.
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THRU SUN NIGHT AND GRADUALLY
PRECIP WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVER TIME THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...SO I HAVE THE
HIGHEST POP FOR THESE LOCATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON FOG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT. THE BEST LOCATION
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SEACOAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
1020 PM UPDATE...
A SHIFT IN THE SEASONS IS EVIDENT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A PAIR OF CUT OFF LOWS
WILL MEANDER OVER THE CONUS WITH THE JET STREAM SHIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA. THE EASTERNMOST LOW WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AS THIS UPPER LOW
ATTEMPTS TO EXIT THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SE OUT OF CANADA WITH
ENSEMBLES FAVORING TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EVERY DAY TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME EXTENDED PERIODS
OF DRY CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN QPF AROUND
1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES. THEREAFTER, POPS WILL RUN IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER DAYS IN THE PERIOD WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN 50S TO 60S.
PREVIOUSLY...
IMPACTS / TRENDS:
-GENERALLY A COOL, DAMP AND SHOWERY WEEK AHEAD.
-FOGGY, WITH SOAKING RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AM
-SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AM
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO START GLOOMY, WITH LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR MOST SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. IN ADDITION, LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY MIX OUT LATER IN
THE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AND MIDCOAST. DENSE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL KEEP MOST PLACES IN THE 50S, THOUGH CENTRAL
MAINE COULD BREAK INTO THE LOWER 60S BECAUSE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
THINNER AND LESS INSULATING THERE.
TEMPERATURES ON AND TUESDAY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE TAMPERED, AS
ONSHORE FLOW COULD ADVECT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS INTO MOST OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTHERLY THE DENSE CLOUDS GO, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
LIKELY IN CLEARER AREAS IN THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT GFS
AND NAM RUNS BOTH TAKE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALL THE WAY TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER, SO ALMOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A GLOOMIER
AND RAINY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW STALLED OUT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
ARRIVE IN THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A SLOW-MOVING
SURFACE LOW AND STEADY RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IMPACTS ARE NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1-
1.5" OF RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY LOOK TO GET DRIER. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTEGRATES INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER CANADA, WHICH MOVES SOUTHWARD, BRINGING MORE SHOWERY WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS CAMPS BECOME VERY BIMODAL
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK. SOME MEMBERS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN, ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIALLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. OTHER MEMBERS SHOW
A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS, MOVING UP THE COAST AND
POTENTIALLY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTH. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FROM LEB TO PWM AND SOUTH. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE MHT TO PSM
CORRIDOR. PRECIP WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING...BUT LOW
CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. I
HAVE AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING BETWEEN SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR HIE. SHOWERS MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA VERY EARLY SUN AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH THRU
MON MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...LOW-STRATUS, PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LOWER
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. RESTRICTIONS
MAY STAY DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THRU THE PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCO BAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
ALSO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND LINGER THRU MUCH OF THE DAY
SUN. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OFF AND ON THRU MUCH OF THE DAY
SUN.
LONG TERM..NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15KT AND 2-4FT SEAS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THOUGH SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLIES THROUGH THE
SAME TIMEFRAME.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LEGRO/SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...PALMER/SCHROETER
AVIATION...LEGRO/PALMER
MARINE...LEGRO/PALMER
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