779
FXUS61 KGYX 042231
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
631 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS NEARBY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH A CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINING IN THE OHIO VALLEY, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
630 PM UPDATE...SURFACE OBS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED WEST
TO EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE NH/MA BORDER WITH WINDS PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FARTHER NORTH DRIER AIR IS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS AN AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE WHITES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
MAINE. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH INTO FAR SW MAINE WHILE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE WILL PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HAVE MAINLY
REFINED POPS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH OBSERVED TRENDS AND RECENT HI
RES GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUSLY...
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, A STEADIER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WAVES OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NORTHERN AREAS STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO DRY OUT THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD, AS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS CONTINUE TO SEE MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS.
SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HERE, 1-2" OF RAIN IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS DROP OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTH FROM HERE, WITH
AMOUNTS DOWN TO AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN AREAS
TOMORROW AS WAVES OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PIVOT IN FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER, NORTHERN AREAS LIKELY SEE MORE
SUNSHINE AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW
60S THROUGH NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND INTO CENTRAL MAINE. SOUTHERN
AREAS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH CLOUDS,
SHOWERS, AND A STEADY EAST WIND.
VERY LITTLE CHANGES WITH THE PATTERN BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
HIGH ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA, ALLOWING
MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE IT
ISN'T RAINING AT ALL TIMES, WAVES OF SHOWERS LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THEY ROTATE IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. LOWS LOOK PRETTY UNIFORM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AS CLOUD COVER SPREADS BACK NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. BEST BET FOR DRIER WEATHER WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE IN
THE WEEK.
IMPACTS: DEPENDING ON WHAT AREAS GET HIT HARDEST BY RAIN...IF
REPEATS OVER THE SAME AREAS THERE COULD BE A GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN FLOOD THREAT.
FORECAST DETAILS: UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST
AND BEGIN TO FILL BY MIDWEEK. BY TUE THE MOISTURE FEED WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS PROBABLY OUT BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY RAINFALL AND I HAVE CATEGORICAL POP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AFTER THAT WE FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARDS DIURNAL
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER THE WED PERIOD THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING AND CUTTING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE CUT OFF LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PIN DOWN...BUT IT DOES WARRANT AT LEAST SOME
POP THRU THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AS FOR TEMPS...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MUCH SPACE BETWEEN ALL
THE SHOWERY WEATHER FOR SUSTAINED WARMTH. WE MAY BE ABLE TO
APPROACH THE 70S ON THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
OTHERWISE LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 50S AND 60S. NOT COLD BY
ANY MEANS...BUT NOT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY. OUR BEST SHOT
AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL COME OVERNIGHT...WHERE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP READINGS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS, AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SOME VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
AUG, RKD, AND HIE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH SHOWERS. CEILINGS THEN LOWER AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH IFR LIKELY RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS.
LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THRU MIDWEEK...WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN AREAS DURING THE DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST. PRECIP WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON TUE. THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK CARRIES MORE UNCERTAINTY. IT COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS...OR WE COULD GET LUCKY AND THE UPPER LOW
CUTS OFF FARTHER AWAY AND ALLOWS FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE WATERS, AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. A FRESHENING EAST WIND
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THRU THE EXTENDED. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO
NEAR 5 FT WELL OUTSIDE THE BAYS AROUND MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH LOW VISIBILITY AND
AREAS OF FOG.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...LEGRO
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