397
FXUS61 KGYX 051359 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS NEARBY, BRINGING MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES
THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. SOME MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A MINOR FLOODING RISK
MAY DEVELOP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A GOOD PUSH OF DRYING FROM THE NORTH AND EAST HAS
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO THIN OVER THE MTNS AND TOWARDS THE
MIDCOAST...AND RAIN HAS BEEN PUSHED LARGELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NH AND ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF ME. THIS WILL
REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY THRU THE DAY...PERHAPS DRIFTING A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED
A CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH AGAINST DRIER AREA TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS IS A LINE FROM ABOUT
LEBANON, NEW HAMPSHIRE TO PORTLAND. THESE SHOWERS BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH THAT DUG IN FROM CANADA DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AS THE MORNING GOES ON, BUT THE CONTINUED MOISTURE FEED AND
FORCING FROM THE CUTOFF LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THIS
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A BRIEFLY LIGHTNING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH WIND GUSTS 15-25 MPH IN
MORNING AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA STAYING DRY, CLOUDS STAY IN PLACE LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID- TO UPPER 50S. OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES, DOWN THROUGH THE KENNEBEC VALLEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ENOUGH SUN TO PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* THE FLOODING THREAT LOOKS LOW ON TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
TONIGHT: WAVES OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THE DRY AIR BACK OUT AND ALLOW SHOWERS TO BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, IT IS LIKELY
SOME PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP IN BETWEEN SHOWERS EARLY ON IN THE
NIGHT. THESE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, BUT IT
CAN'T BE FORGOTTEN THAT THESE ARE TAPPING INTO PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH, SO A LOCAL DOWNPOUR IS STILL POSSIBLE. AMPLE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID- TO UPPER 40S.
TUESDAY: SHOWERS BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS FINAL APPROACH. CONTINUED SOUTH
WESTERLY FLOW DRIVES PWATS UP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND WITH THE
TRIPLE POINT MOVING INTO THE AREA THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
FORCING TO RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS FRONTAL PUSH MAY
VERY WELL CREATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL, SO A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LOOKS TO BE LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS IS CERTAINLY BENEFICIAL RAIN, WHEN LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THERE IS THE RISK THAT HEAVIER SHOWERS
BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME. STAYED CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE DAYTIME QPF
AMOUNTS WHICH GIVE AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS 0.50-0.75
INCHES. THE FLASH FLOOD DURING THE DAY IS LOW AS CURRENT 1- HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 1-2 INCHES FOR OUR AREA AND 6-HR FFG IS
2- 3 INCHES, AND RAINFALL RATES DON'T LOOK THAT HIGH. HOWEVER,
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE THE GAUGE
FOR A POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT FOR THE EVENING ONCE IT IS CLEAR
WHICH AREAS HAVE SEEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
11 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITHIN THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE FOR
SHOWER CHANCES TO DECREASE EACH DAY AS ONE UPPER LOW EXITS MID
WEEK, WHILE TROUGHING WILL LINGER NEAR THE EAST COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGE: UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. BEST BET FOR DRIER WEATHER WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE IN
THE WEEK.
IMPACTS: DEPENDING ON WHAT AREAS GET HIT HARDEST BY RAIN...IF
REPEATS OVER THE SAME AREAS THERE COULD BE A GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN FLOOD THREAT.
FORECAST DETAILS: AFTER THE WED PERIOD THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING AND CUTTING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE CUT OFF LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PIN DOWN...BUT IT DOES WARRANT AT LEAST SOME
POP THRU THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AS FOR TEMPS...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MUCH SPACE BETWEEN ALL
THE SHOWERY WEATHER FOR SUSTAINED WARMTH. WE MAY BE ABLE TO
APPROACH THE 70S ON THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
OTHERWISE LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 50S AND 60S. NOT COLD BY
ANY MEANS...BUT NOT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY. OUR BEST SHOT
AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL COME OVERNIGHT...WHERE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP READINGS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PRESENT THIS MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. AUG AND POINTS
NORTH JUMP UP TO VFR NOT LONG AFTER DAY BREAK, WITH OTHER
TERMINALS LIKELY ONLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF. A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL UNFOLD TONIGHT
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ENTER BACK INTO THE AREA, LASTING THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THRU MIDWEEK...WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN AREAS DURING THE DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CARRIES MORE
UNCERTAINTY. IT COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT CONDITIONS...OR
WE COULD GET LUCKY AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF FARTHER AWAY AND
ALLOWS FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY TODAY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THRU THE EXTENDED. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO
NEAR 5 FT WELL OUTSIDE THE BAYS AROUND MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH LOW VISIBILITY AND
AREAS OF FOG.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...LEGRO/SCHROETER
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