722
FXUS61 KGYX 060246
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1046 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CUT OFF LOW PRESSES NORTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
BRINING MORE RAINFALL. SOME MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A MINOR
FLOODING RISK MAY DEVELOP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS. RELATIVELY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN,
BUT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORE RAIN
AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
1045 PM...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WITH JUST MINOR
EDITS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH OBSERVATIONS.
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE MAINLY TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY...
DRY PUSH OF AIR CONTINUES TO CONFINE SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN NH AND THE UPPER VALLEY. HOWEVER ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ROTATE NORTH THRU THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. I ANTICIPATE EXPANDING RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. I
DO NOT SEE THE PRECIP INTENSITY BEING ALL THAT CONCERNING
TONIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE VISIBILITY FOR POTENTIALLY
DENSE FOG AT TIMES. THE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
S/WV TROF PIVOTING AROUND THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
EARLY TUE. BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY RAINY
DAY...BUT TWO PERIODS OF PARTICULARLY HEAVIER RAIN. ONE WILL BE
WITH THIS MORNING S/WV TROF...LIFTING THRU THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND MIDDAY. THE SECOND WILL BE AS THE UPPER LOW
CENTER APPROACHES AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
AROUND 2.5 TO 3 INCHES...SO IF EMBEDDED ELEMENTS CAN START TO
EXCEED 1 INCH/HOUR FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD START TO INCREASE. I
HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER EMBEDDED SHOWERS. SOME OF THAT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON JUST
WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL OCCURS TONIGHT. TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
AS OF THIS MORNING WERE BETWEEN 2 TO 3.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NH AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN ME. SO THOSE AREAS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED THE CLOSEST. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH LIKE
TODAY...REMAINING IN THE 50S WHERE IT IS RAINING. SOME LOW 60S
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF RAIN...BUT
IT WILL BE BRIEF AT BEST.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVY RAIN RATE POTENTIAL WILL BE MOVING
THRU THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT. SOME CLEARING OF PRECIP FROM
THE WEST IS LIKELY...BUT CLOUD COVER LIKELY REMAINS THRU
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THAT
BLANKET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
1045 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LATEST NBM WITH
UNSETTLED PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. POPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS THE NEXT SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERVIEW...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TAKES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY TO REACH NEW ENGLAND, AND MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT ONE IS HOT ON IT'S
HEALS THOUGH, DEEPENING AND MOVING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO
NEW ENGLAND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BROADENING
TROUGH LIKELY DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS...
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS, CONDITIONS
REMAIN UNSETTLED. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY DRIER AND WARMER, WITH POP UP SHOWERS MORE COMMON IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
60S AND 70S. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE FOUND
ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY, AS WELL
AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED.
BY FRIDAY, CONDITIONS TURN WETTER AND COOLER AGAIN AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE LIKELY MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SYSTEM LIKELY LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
AS WELL. DETAILS ON JUST HOW MUCH RAIN SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE THESE CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURES.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BUT
TO WHAT DEGREE REMAINS UNCLEAR UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AT THIS POINT, THERE'S
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER
AND WARMER THAN SATURDAY, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUNSHINE. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND
LIKELY BEGINNING A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...STILL HAVE AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL WESTERN ME.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. I ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO MOVE INLAND BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS MAY HANG ON FOR AT LEAST PART OF TONIGHT
AT HIE...BUT EVENTUALLY EVEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD WORK INTO AREAS
NORTH OF THE MTNS. FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW DENSE IT WILL BE. IFR VIS IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS MORNING A DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ MAY
PRODUCE SOME LLWS...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS UPDATE. THE IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE NIGHT BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST
LATE.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT LEB AND HIE. CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATE ON
FRIDAY WITH MVFR AND IFR AS RAIN MOVES IN, AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THRU TUE
NIGHT. BOTH EARLY TUE AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM...SOME 5FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO/SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CLAIR/SCHROETER
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