753
FXUS61 KGYX 252250
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
650 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES IS THEN LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
645 PM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE ME COASTAL PLAIN FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES.
PREVIOUSLY...
MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF MAINE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING IN THE MIDCOAST, AND MOVING SOUTHWARD. A COUPLE MORE
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE ENVIRONMENT SHOWS A BIT
OF WEAK INSTABILITY. A DIURNAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL HAPPEN AFTER
SUNSET, ENDING THE SHOWER CHANCES AND DIMINISHING WINDS THIS
EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS UP NORTH MAY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE.
CONSIDERED A FROST ADVISORY, BUT OPTED AGAINST IT TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR UP COMPLETELY,
NOR ARE WINDS CALM ENOUGH FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM. IT
ONLY TAKES THE LIGHTEST PUFF OF WIND TO WARM TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OVERNIGHT, AND SO A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CALM
WINDS IS NECESSARY TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
TOMORROW SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER, AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BE CLEARER THROUGH THE DAY. STILL
CAN'T RULE OUT A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO, BUT THE CHANCES
OF SEEING ONE TOMORROW ARE LESS LIKELY THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS PRESENT AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
HOWEVER, A SEA BREEZE MOVES IN MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND COULD
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. THE WEAKER LOW- LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO MOVE A BIT FURTHER
INLAND TOMORROW, POTENTIALLY MAKING IT TO AUBURN/LEWISTON BY THE
END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
TOMORROW NIGHT IS LOOKING CLEAR FOR MOST, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING TWO MORE DAYS OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WHILE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. FOR MOST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO WHERE THE
SEABREEZE WON'T HAVE ANY ISSUES DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND, SO I
HAVE GONE A BIT COOLER ON TEMPS NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO LATCH ON TO A WEAK 500 MB WAVE
ON TUESDAY THAT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR ALOFT, SO IF ANY SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP, THEY'RE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE STEEPER, AND TEMPERATURES ARE
POTENTIALLY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT THUNDER.
MOVING ON TO LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...A RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS LIKELY STARTING THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND TIME(S) OF THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY, AND
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT, LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH YET ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LOW SETTING UP
TO OUR WEST. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE AS
MULTIPLE WAVES/LOWS CROSS THROUGH THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THEY CURRENTLY REFLECT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING, BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR AND FAIR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS MIGHT LOWER
BRIEFLY ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY, DUE TO VALLEY FOG EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES LOOK TO GRADUALLY CLEAR, WITH
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DAILY SEABREEZES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL SITES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES, BUT TIMING AND DETAILS ARE OF LOW
CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 4-12KTS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING, THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SEA BREEZE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AT 4-8KTS. TOMORROW NIGHT, WINDS
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 6-12KTS. 2-4FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNDER SCA LEVELS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK, POTENTIALLY TO SCA LEVELS.
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURES AND FRONTS MAY CROSS THE REGION FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/PALMER
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...COMBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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