796
FXUS61 KGYX 261346
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES IS THEN LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
940 AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE, FORECAST
REMAINS WELL ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
630 AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD AND WFO
CAR, DID ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR THE MID-COAST FOR A
HIGH PADDLE CRAFT RISK.
PREVIOUSLY...
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NH WITH LINGERING MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ME. VALLEY FOG IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER NH WHERE SKIES HAVE MANAGED TO CLEAR OUT AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S IN
THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. OTHER THAN PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DRY AND COOL
MORNING.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW
OF COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY EXIT WELL TO OUR EAST TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. A
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CLOUDS AFTER A SUNNY START IN MANY AREAS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR EVEN RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL LIKELY COOL COASTAL LOCATIONS LATER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND H5 RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THEREFORE USED MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS
BRINGS READINGS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS
WITH 40S TO NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS.
ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH
TOTAL WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WAVE ACTION
AND WINDS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL THOUGH, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
SEVERITY OF ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES INLAND. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN
ALOFT. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE COAST INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
LONG TERM UPDATE...01Z NBM HAS BEEN BLENDED IN WITH THE GOING
FORECAST AND REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. MIDWEEK
FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATER THU INTO THE WEEKEND.
PREVIOUSLY...
MOVING ON TO LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...A RETURN TO AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS LIKELY STARTING THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND TIME(S) OF
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY, AND
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT, LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH YET ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LOW SETTING UP
TO OUR WEST. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE AS
MULTIPLE WAVES/LOWS CROSS THROUGH THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THEY CURRENTLY REFLECT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING, BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING, MAINLY AT KHIE AND KLEB. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL TODAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AT 5-15 KTS AT COASTAL TAF SITES DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH VALLEY FG
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE MOVES ACROSS COASTAL SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SEABREEZE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL SITES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES, BUT TIMING AND DETAILS ARE OF LOW
CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW THRESHOLDS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNDER SCA LEVELS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK, POTENTIALLY TO SCA
LEVELS. MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURES AND FRONTS MAY CROSS THE REGION
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ027-028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...PALMER
NEAR / SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...COMBS/EKSTER
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