550
FXUS61 KGYX 261930
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES IS THEN LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, SHOWERS
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD. SOME INSTABILITY THIS EVENING OVER THE
LAKES REGION COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR
WITH SOME OF THESE PASSING SHOWERS.
ANY SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-40S.
HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALLOW LOWS TO STAY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT'S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY.
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE SEACOAST AND UP NEAR PORTLAND AS WELL. PLEASE SEE THE
'TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING' SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
TOMORROW WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID-70S,
WITH A LIGHT SEA BREEZE KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE COAST A LITTLE COOLER.
A WEAK LAYER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY, AND WILL
ALLOWING FOR TOWERING CUMULUS AND A COUPLE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
ANY SHOWERS THE DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
TOMORROW NIGHT, SHOWERS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH.
ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND IN
CENTRAL MAINE. ELSEWHERE, A CLOUD SHIELD FROM A SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE
RIDGING OVERHEAD KEEPS CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY. SIMILAR TO TODAY
AND TUESDAY, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN BE STEEP AND BRING A
LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY, SO A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (10% OR LESS) WITH DRY
AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL AGAIN BE QUITE
WARM AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN SOME SPOTS. THE SEABREEZE
WILL KEEP THE COAST A TAD COOLER.
THE RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIP ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, AND
WE GET RIGHT BACK INTO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FIRST WAVE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY AS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
MULTIPLE WAVES/WEAK LOWS CROSS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND, BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THESE REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED DRY PERIODS IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME TOO. ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
CURRENTLY DEPICTING THE POSSIBILITY OF 0.50" TO 1.00" OF RAIN FROM
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR A DRYING TREND GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MAYBE NEXT MONDAY, BUT AS LONG AS BROAD TROUGHING HOLDS ON OVER THE
NORTHEAST, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE NBM POP OF 20-30%.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH SOME PASSING
SHOWERS BRIEFLY LOWERING SITES TO MVFR. SOME PATCHY FOG TOMORROW
MORNING COULD LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT LEB AND HIE BRIEFLY AS WELL. VFR
EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING OTHERWISE, WITH A COUPLE SHOWERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, LOCALLY LOWERING RESTRICTIONS AGAIN. FAIR AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES. ADDITIONAL WINDOWS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF VFR MIXED IN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-10KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE BAYS AND OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF PORTLAND. 8-14KT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFFSHORE FROM PENOBSCOT BAY.
1-3FT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SETS UP EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO
CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
SCA CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TIMING
AND TRACKS OF THE LOWS REMAINS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. AHEAD OF THE
FIRST LOW, FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH JUST UNDER HALF A FOOT OF
SURGE MAY BRING TOTAL WATER LEVELS VERY NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FROM PORTLAND SOUTHWARD.
WATER LEVELS MAY AGAIN APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH THE LATE
TUESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ027-028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...PALMER
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...COMBS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...COMBS
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