116
FXUS61 KGYX 271448
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES IS THEN LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
10:45AM UPDATE... TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WARM THIS
MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING ALONG THE
COAST, WITH HIGHS HOLDING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HERE
THE REST OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY BEFORE SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS BEGIN TO
ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL NO NOTABLE
CHANGES AT THIS TIME AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
630 AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
PREVIOUSLY...
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS TUESDAY
MORNING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION, WHICH COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEXTBOOK RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS ARE LIKELY EXPERIENCING A
FROSTY START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS ARE PRIMARILY INTO THE 40S. A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF COOLING IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNRISE. SO FAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASOS REPORTS DON'T INDICATE VALLEY FOG BUT
STILL BELIEVE THIS COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE. IT WILL
OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO BE A DRY AND COOL MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY
WITH INCREASING H5 RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, DID GO AHEAD AND BLEND
IN MOS GUIDANCE INTO AFTERNOON DEW POINTS TO LOWER THEN GIVEN
THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT. IN ADDITION, BASED ON FORECAST
PERFORMANCE YESTERDAY AND A SIMILAR SETUP TODAY, BLENDED IN SOME
NBM 75TH PERCENTILE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND LOCATIONS
AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WARM TODAY. ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS THE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE. AS SUCH, FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM AROUND
80 IN MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WITH 60S AND 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN NH BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN LIKELY. THEREFORE, MOSTLY USED
MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHICH BRINGS READINGS DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.
DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
FORECAST HIGHS ONCE AGAIN NEAR 80 DEGREES INLAND WITH 60S TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A MORE PERSISTENT SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
1105 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LATEST NBM FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE WAVE ROTATE THROUGH A DEVELOPING LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.
PREVIOUSLY...
THE RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIP ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, AND
WE GET RIGHT BACK INTO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FIRST WAVE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY AS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
MULTIPLE WAVES/WEAK LOWS CROSS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND, BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THESE REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED DRY PERIODS IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME TOO. ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
CURRENTLY DEPICTING THE POSSIBILITY OF 0.50" TO 1.00" OF RAIN FROM
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR A DRYING TREND GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MAYBE NEXT MONDAY, BUT AS LONG AS BROAD TROUGHING HOLDS ON OVER THE
NORTHEAST, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE NBM POP OF 20-30%.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS INLAND SITES WHILE AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AT KPSM, KPWM, AND KRKD BRINGS A WIND SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH. PATCHY VALLEY FG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
BUT OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. NO LLWS
IS ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES. ADDITIONAL WINDOWS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF VFR MIXED IN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE MOVES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT LOOKS
TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT TIMING AND TRACKS OF THE LOWS REMAINS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE.
AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW, FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/TUBBS
SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...COMBS/SCHROETER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page