544
FXUS61 KGYX 272235
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
635 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NORTH INTO THE ARE THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. A
SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN
MAINE SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ONCE AGAIN.
COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW OVERHEAD.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
635 PM...MINOR UPDATE TO T/TDS AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREVIOUSLY...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THOUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES DO COOL OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING
FROM THEIR WARM DAYTIME HIGHS WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH THE WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE, AND THE COOLEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
THE ONE OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST TONIGHT WILL BE THE HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT. WATER LEVELS LIKELY COME
WITHIN A FEW INCHES OF FLOOD STAGE, BUT WITH A LACK OF ANY SURGE
AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED TO THE USUAL LOW LYING SPOTS THAT SEE SOME WATER IN
THESE SITUATIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
THROUGH AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY
FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY, LIKELY HOLDING
TEMPS BACK BY A FEW DEGREES FROM THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. EVEN
STILL, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. A SEA BREEZE DOES DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ALONG
THE COAST, AND LIKELY PUSHES A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN TODAY
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFFSHORE. TEMPS STILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS FIRST ALONG THE COAST,
BUT THEN FALL BACK A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTER BEING SPOILED BY THREE DAYS OF WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT. A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES, LIKELY SPREADING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVATED INTO AT LEAST SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TOMORROW
NIGHT. POPS DO DROP OFF QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST, WITH
RAIN TAKING LONGER TO ARRIVE IN THESE AREAS, EITHER THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, LOWS GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FAVORABLE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WED NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST. A WEAK LOW OFF THE DELMARVA REGION LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN BUT NO NOTABLE AMOUNTS. FOG OVER THE MARINE
WATERS IS LIKELY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR. THERE WILL BE A LULL AS THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THU NIGHT, BUT ATTENTION TURNS TO A
SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS IS HAPPENING,
ANOTHER LOW DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND PHASES WITH A COASTAL LOW
MOVING NORTH FROM VIRGINIA. THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE, WITH IT LIFTING NORTH AND INLAND ACROSS EITHER
WESTERN OR CENTRAL MAINE. THESE VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS DEEPENING LOW WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE AREAS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, AND WIND POTENTIAL. THE EURO AND THE CANADIAN
MODELS SHOWS THIS LOW TRACKING MORE EAST AND SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DESPITE THESE FINER DETAILS, THE BIG PICTURE IS WE ARE
FACED WITH ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND WITH SOAKING RAIN SATURDAY AND
COOL/SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. IN FACT THE COLD POOL IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW AT MT. WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT LIKELY NOT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINING ACROSS OUR REGION INTO SUNDAY, WITH A COLD POOL AND NW
FLOW ALOFT. DESTABILIZATION WITH ANY HEATING WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. TREND HAS FAVORED DROPPING
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 50S TO LOW/MID 60S IN THE
SOUTH. NW FLOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH A ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT RIDGING RETURNS NEXT WEEK
WITH A DRYING OUT PERIOD POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AT MHT, CON, AND LEB.
LONG TERM...RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG
ON THURSDAY, WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS GO BACK DOWNHILL SATURDAY WITH MODERATE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AGAIN BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WEAK SYSTEM MAY VEER WINDS, BUT NOT
EXPECTED ANY NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS ON THURSDAY. THE MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. TREND IS FAVORING STRONGER GRADIENT WITH A 30%
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS. SEAS HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
SCA CRITERIA OF >5FT DUE TO THE LONG S FETCH.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...JAMISON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page