736
FXUS61 KGYX 290258
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1058 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A COUPLE OF GORGEOUS SPRING DAYS THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH IT. WHILE FRIDAY MAY REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS, A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS LOOKING
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY WE CANNOT SEEM TO DITCH THE
WEEKEND RAIN EVENT, FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE WEEK. COOLER WEATHER
WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS
AGAIN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
1055 PM...MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREVIOUSLY...
CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS, THE DROP OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TONIGHT, WITH
TEMPS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWS GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS LIKELY REACH INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS
THEY ARRIVE. POPS DROP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SHOWERS
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO WET THE
GROUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT ONLY
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THE
OVERNIGHT BATCH BY TOMORROW MORNING. IT WON'T BE UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY AND TOMORROW NIGHT THAT THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE
ARRIVES TO BRING A RELATIVE INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. NORTHEASTERN AREAS ALSO START THE DAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN BY MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE,
THICKER CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING MOVES THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE SHOWERS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COASTLINE. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
INCREASING WEAK FORCING OVERLAPS WITH THE TAIL END OF SOME
DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
1055 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NOTED IN THE LATEST NBM WITH
STRONG SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A CLOSING UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY WHILE THE TRENDS WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLES FAVOR BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PROMOTE
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RISING TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGE: ANOTHER WEEKEND...ANOTHER RAIN EVENT. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKER IS EXPECTED SAT AND COOL START TO NEXT WEEK BEFORE A GRADUAL
WARM UP.
IMPACTS: STORM ON SAT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO AVOID BIG QPF AND
FLOODING THREAT, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW IN THE HIGH PEAKS AS THE
TROF SWINGS THRU THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST DETAILS: THE MAIN QUESTION FRI IS HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN ARE
WE ABLE TO GET. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND
COLD FRONT OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING NEAR JAMES BAY...SO THEY DAY MAY
STAY MOSTLY DRY. IF WE CAN KEEP WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST THAN SOUTHEAST
I SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND IT COULD BE
QUITE WARM. AS IT STANDS NOW I HAVE SORT OF A SWAMPY LOW 70S...AS
DEWPOINTS TRY AND CREEP INTO THE LOW 60S.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW HAS QUITE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
SAT. THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF PRECIP...DURING THE
DAY SAT. IN ADDITION THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A NEAR 3 SIGMA LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE REGION. SUCH A STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL NO DOUBT SPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK. WITH POP ALREADY AT
CATEGORICAL I DID NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE NBM
FORECAST.
A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. WITH
SUPPORT FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST AROUND 40 DEGREES WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
SOME 30S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS SUN NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY, MVFR CEILINGS SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH A FEW SHOWERS. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS ARE THEN LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS FRI WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP INTO THE SURFACE
WARM SECTOR WE ARE ABLE TO MAKE IT LOCALLY. I ANTICIPATE SOME AREAS
OF VFR BREAKING OUT DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS RAIN MOVES IN. WIDESPREAD IFR IS LIKELY. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY SUN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LATTER
HALF OF FRI IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
THRU SAT. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH I CANNOT RULE ON A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...LEGRO/SCHROETER
AVIATION...CLAIR/LEGRO
MARINE...CLAIR/LEGRO
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