800
FXUS61 KGYX 291935
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. A COASTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ON SUNDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND, AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH QUEBEC. THE SHORTWAVE GENERATES SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ARRIVE THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT ONLY EXPAND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE ON SSW FLOW. WITH OCEAN
TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, FOG IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN ALONG THE MIDCOAST AND CENTRAL MAINE TONIGHT
AS DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S PUSH NORTHWARD. THIS FOG MAY ALSO
TRY TO PUSH IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN MAINE COAST, BUT IS UNLIKELY
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND GIVEN THE SSW WIND DIRECTION. WITH
THIS SET UP, SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY
EAST OF CASCO BAY AND THROUGH THE KENNEBEC VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY IS SPENT BETWEEN SYSTEMS, PROVIDING
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS ALONG THE MIDCOAST LIKELY HOLD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COASTLINES. SOME PATCHY MARINE FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EAST OF CASCO BAY THROUGH THE DAY.
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH THE
MOST SUNSHINE LIKELY TO COINCIDE WITH THE MIDDAY PEAK SUN
STRENGTH. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE PREVALENT, AND HOLD TEMPS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT AS A MORE ORGANIZED AND
MOIST SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND LIKELY
REACHING MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THIS DOES LOOK TO
BE MORE OR A STEADY SOAKING RAIN, AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN KICKS OFF THE WEEKEND.
STEADY IMPROVEMENT THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IMPACTS: WHILE QPF HAS TICKED UP SLIGHTLY...THE STORM REMAINS MOVING
QUICKLY AND NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.
FORECAST DETAILS: MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REGARDING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR THE STORM ITSELF IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THE FORECAST MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SEASON...AND SOMETHING AKIN TO
A ONCE IN A DECADE LOW PRESSURE FOR THE KICK OFF TO SUMMER.
ADDITIONALLY A ROUGHLY 150 KT JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO FORM
JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...ANOTHER ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THAT WOULD PLACE THE FORECAST AREA NEATLY WITHIN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION...AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. SO I HAVE INCREASED
POP TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT ALREADY...IT JUST LOOKS WET. THE QPF
DID INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE FORECAST...BUT OVERALL THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING QUICKLY AND THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. SO RATHER THAN A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT...THIS
JUST LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A SOAKING.
UPPER TROF WILL LINGER SUN INTO MON SO THE THREAT OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THRU MOST OF
NEXT WEEK RIDGING LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE EAST COAST. WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS LINGER NEAR MVFR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR TERMINALS. AUG AND RKD LIKELY SEE IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MARINE FOG. PWM AND PSM
REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE OF THE FOG, WITH MVFR CEILINGS MORE LIKELY,
BUT IFR IN FOG REMAINING POSSIBLE. MOST TERMINALS SEE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN BROKEN
CEILINGS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT HIE. RKD LIKELY HOLDS ONTO THE
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO IFR WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, ARRIVING AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT,
AND REACHING AUG AND RKD TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
MTNS...IN A STEADY RAINFALL. AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...LOW CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT AND LIFT. SOME
LINGERING MVFR IS POSSIBLE SUN AND MON WITH CIGS AND LOCALLY IN
ANY SHRA. VFR WILL BE WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS, BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SSW FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WITH WINDS LARGELY REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE
WATERS ONLY MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER THE
CONSISTENT WIND DIRECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS OVER 5 FT
OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS INTO SUN MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...LEGRO
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