483
FXUS61 KGYX 261846
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
246 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL ABATE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY, FINALLY MANAGING TO OVERCOME LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR. ECHOS HAVE BEEN APLENTY FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, BUT JUST OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO MADE IT TO
SURFACE OBSERVING STATIONS. MOST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN
VERY LIGHT, WITH SOME ONLY NOTING A TRACE OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH. PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS ONSET OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ME AND MUCH OF NH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL KEEP DRY AIR PRESENT.
THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DURATION OF SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING,
AS WELL AS KEEP CLOUD CEILINGS ELEVATED. THINNING CLOUD CAST
SHOULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ME TONIGHT, AND THIS
MAY PROMOTE SOME BRIEF VALLEY FOG INTO THE KENNEBEC VALLEY. OF
MORE UNCERTAINTY IS IF THE SAME DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE CT VALLEY.
CLOUDS MAY BE MORE DENSE HERE LIMITING THE RETREAT OF
TEMPERATURES WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY BEGINS EERILY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE EAST, BUT INCREASING CLOUDINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE NEAR THURSDAY'S HIGHS, BUT THE WARMER
TEMPS LOOK TO BE MORE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS CENTRAL ME. THIS IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THICKER CLOUDS IN THE AM FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH.
WINDS BECOME ONSHORE FRIDAY, WITH MOISTURE AGAIN SATURATING TOP
DOWN FOR INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON. DON'T
ANTICIPATE MORE STEADY RAINFALL UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE GULF OF ME FRIDAY
EVENING, ITS RETURN FLOW AIDING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY TO THE WEST, AND THIS
SHIFTS EAST AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
HREF AND NBM QPF HAS NOSED NORTH, WITH THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS
AND FAR NORTHERN NH FIRST RECEIVING THE STEADY RAIN. THE
TRANSLATION EASTWARD ALONG THIS REGION OF LIFT WILL TEND TO
FOCUS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ALONG A SPECIFIC AXIS. THIS HAS
WAVERED BY GUIDANCE AND OVER TIME, AS WELL AS AMOUNTS. NOTING
THAT JET COUPLING ISN'T AS INTENSE AND A LARGE SPREAD THROUGH
THE IQR OF THE NBM LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN 2"+ AMOUNTS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING, A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA, WITH AMOUNTS NEARING A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO THE GULF OF
MAINE SATURDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
TUESDAY WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WHILE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE HIGH
CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WHILE SUBTLE NORTH TO SOUTH DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING A SPREAD IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
TEMPERATURES. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAVORING A LOW TRACK NEAR
OVERHEAD THAT WOULD LIMIT THE FORECAST AREA'S RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN LIMITED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. EVENT TOTAL QPF FORECAST IS
GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS AND
DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER, 6 HOUR FFG
IS GENERALLY ABOVE 3 INCHES, WHICH LEADS TO A LOW RISK FOR FLOOD
CONCERNS WITH THIS EVENT.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT
AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE AND
WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE A RUN INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. THESE HIGH DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING
WILL LIKELY YIELD AMPLE CAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BECOME LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LATEST MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE OUT OF CSU IS
SHOWING A DECENT SIGNAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS COLD
FRONT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WHILE DEWPOINTS DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL LINGER KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING LOWERED CEILING/VIS TO POINTS NEAR
RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT, AND HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF MENTION OF
VICINITY FOG HERE. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURING IS LOW
DUE TO EXISTING CLOUD COVER, BUT SOME MAY BEGIN TO THIN LATER
TONIGHT. VFR CONTINUES FRIDAY, BUT CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AND THEN IFR ARE LIKELY FIRST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS AND MOVING NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
CIGS NEAR MVFR TO IFR THRESHOLDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. RESTRICTIONS
MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY.
VFR LIKELY PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PERSISTENT
ONSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AND SEAS CLIMBING TO 5-6 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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