355
FXUS61 KGYX 291430
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1030 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE. OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS, THE MIDDLE TO SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1030 AM...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF
A FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE WITH TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE WARMING AS
QUICKLY. HAVE MAINLY TWEAKED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO
CAPTURE THESE OBSERVED TRENDS.
6:30AM UPDATE... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH CLEARING UNDERWAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR OUT, SO TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE SLOWER TO RESPOND THIS MORNING, BUT WILL QUICKLY RISE
ONCE THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH. OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS...
ONE LAST BATCH OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH
THE LAKES REGION OF MAINE BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE WITH SUNSHINE AND A WEST WIND.
SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY, WITH MORE SUNSHINE DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHILE 80S ARE EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AFTER AN INITIAL WARM UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST, A SEA BREEZE LIKELY MOVES IN BY THE MID AFTERNOON AS
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE, DROPPING
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT, BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, SO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED AS LOWS ARE
HELD IN CHECK BY THE DEW POINTS. THIS SET UP DOES FAVOR AREAS
VALLEY FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TOMORROW AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST, AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR,
WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. A SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AGAIN
TOMORROW, LIKELY STARTING BY LATE MORNING, AND KEEPS HIGHS
CAPPED IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST. EVERYONE ENJOYS
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATTERN OVERVIEW: OUR WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE
UNSETTLED SIDE AS WE END UP IN BROAD TROUGHING FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS AS
WELL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHARPER TROUGH TOWARD THE
JULY 4TH HOLIDAY, BUT ALSO A BIT OF A DRIER AIRMASS THAT COULD
LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* TUESDAY IS A DAY TO WATCH AS WARM MOIST CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST,
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH LOOKS TO DRIVE DEWPOINTS UP IN
TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. THIS WOULD HAVE SOME LOCATIONS
FEELING STICKY WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, FEELING MORE LIKE LOW TO MID 90S.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY EVEN APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IF TRENDS HOLD. OTHER THAN A LITTLE BIT MORE OF AN
UNCOMFORTABLE DAY, THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY PROVIDE FORCING
FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST
HAS STAYED PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND
30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, SUGGESTING SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENT PWATS ARE MODELED TO BE AROUND 2", SO THESE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AT THE VERY LEAST. ANY FINER DETAILS WILL
HAVE TO BE RESOLVED BY CAM GUIDANCE LATER DOWN THE ROAD, BUT
THIS CERTAINLY REMAINS A PERIOD TO WATCH. SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM SO TUESDAY NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE 60S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW MAYBE SUPPORTING SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS, SIMILARLY ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING ABOUT A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHARPER TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK.
WHERE THEY DIFFER IS TIME OF DEPARTURE, WITH THE GFS BEING THE
QUICKEST AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN KEEPING IN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER THING OF NOTE
IS THAT THE AIRMASS AROUND THIS TIME LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO DON'T
ASSUME YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS GOING TO BE A WASH. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE, BUT MY FORECAST
REMAINS ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE (AND CLOSE TO NBM CONSENSUS) WITH
JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR THIS
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. VALLEY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPS TONIGHT AT LEB, HIE, AND CON, BUT IS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS. ANY FOG CLEARS TOMORROW MORNING, WITH VFR PREVAILING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
LONG TERM...VFR PREVAILS MOST DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ON TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT BRINGS WITH IT A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN, AND THEREFORE BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES, AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AT TERMINALS THAT
SEE RAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW.
LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING ABOUT BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS AND CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUB SCA CRITERIA
THEN RETURNS THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...BARON
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