167
FXUS61 KGYX 021350
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
950 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TODAY. IT WILL BE
LARGELY DRY TODAY THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE, WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE
ORGANIZED THAN TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE FOURTH,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S AND COMFORTABLE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND MORE HUMID
ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
930 AM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE IN THE MORNING UPDATE IS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER THE S HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THAT
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. THIS MAY SHAVE A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH, BUT
OVERALL STILL LOOKING AT A HOT AND HUMID DAY, THOUGH LESS HUMID
THAN YESTERDAY.
PREVIOUSLY...
COLD FRONT STAYS HUNG UP NEAR THE COAST TODAY WITH NO REAL
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME TOWERING CUMULUS. WITH A LACK
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
DRIER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE 90
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
WED NIGHT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE CREEP OF MARINE FOG DOWN THE
COAST AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES AND FLOW STARTS TO TURN BACK
TOWARDS SHORE. WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE QUITE AS ONSHORE AS
TODAY HOWEVER...SO HOW FAR IT MAKES IT IS IN QUESTION. I SUSPECT
SOME FOG WILL WORK INTO AREAS AROUND CASCO BAY AT LEAST.
CSU MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THU
AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK ALREADY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH ENOUGH SHEAR
AND SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BOTH WIND AND HAIL COULD
BE A THREAT. AS SOME TOWNS BEGIN 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN USUAL WITH MORE PEOPLE
OUTDOORS. TIMING ALSO LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR MAXIMIZING PEAK
HEATING...WITH STORMS STARTING EARLY IN THE MTNS AND MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST INTO A WARM AND STILL MOIST AIR MASS. CAM
GUIDANCE ALREADY LOOKS A FAIR BIT MORE ROBUST THAN THEY DID FOR
TODAY
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN BEYOND THU NIGHT.
AFTER A DRY FRI...WARM TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
IMPACTS: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
FORECAST DETAILS: THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SHORT TERM AND SO THE EXTENDED IS LARGELY THE LATEST VERSION OF
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
WHAT DOES LOOK TO BE TRUE IS THAT FRI WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM...BUT A FRESH DRY AIR MASS WILL REPLACE
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY EXPECTED THRU THU. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
EVEN UPPER 40S ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SAT. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOUTHWEST TO RETURN AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO START
AGAIN. THIS WILL ALSO BRING PASSING S/WV TROFS A LITTLE CLOSER
AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THRU
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WED NIGHT
MARINE FOG WILL START TO CREEP BACK DOWN THE COAST...WITH IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM RKD TO PWM. THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
BESIDE LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY CONVECTION...SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU
SAT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CHANCES FOR
SHRA WILL INCREASE AND LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...OFFSHORE FOG BANK WILL HANG WELL OFFSHORE UNTIL
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. I SUSPECT IT WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
SOUTHWEST BACK DOWN THE COAST HEADING INTO THU. OTHERWISE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM...FRESH WESTERLY WINDS FRI WILL GIVE WAY TO
PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLIES THRU THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
NEXT 5 FT WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...LEGRO
MARINE...LEGRO
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