104
FXUS61 KGYX 021743
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
143 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH
FAIR DRY WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND 80S AND COMFORTABLE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE
WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A MODEST DROP IN HUMIDITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT STALLED NEAR THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A
SEA BREEZE COULD SUPPORT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS IN THE MIDCOAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROCEED FURTHER OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT. CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS
BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S FROM N TO S. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF VALLEY FOG,
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
CONCERNS FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM THE MIDCOAST EASTWARD,
LIKELY TO IMPACT COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
- APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY,
WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF QUEBEC TOMORROW
WILL PIVOT ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUPPORT EXPANDING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH PWATS ONLY
AROUND 1.25" FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT, LIMITING THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH TOMORROW'S MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH, SURFACE HEATING PROMOTED BY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE SWIFTLY INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000+ J/KG FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS,
COUPLED WITH MODERATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS COULD
ALLOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT, THE SPC HAS OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 2/5) RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREATS. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS IS 1-7 PM, POSSIBLY IMPACTING ANY EARLY
4TH OF JULY CELEBRATIONS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE STILL
SOME DISPARITIES BETWEEN HI-RES GUIDANCE, WITH SOME MODELS
PLACING THE FRONT BACK IN NORTHWESTERN ME BY PEAK HEATING HOURS
WHEREAS OTHERS ALREADY HAVE THE FRONT NEARING THE COASTAL AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE,
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR HAIL. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH DCAPE VALUES OF
600-700+ LIKELY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKIES. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS SETTLES IN FRIDAY FEATURING HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY. AS THE
UPPER LOW CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF MAINE, IT MAY SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL STAY MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S, BUT NORTHERN VALLEYS
MAY SEE THE UPPER 40S.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB RIDGE
STEADILY BUILDS IN, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK WAVE
MOVING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY, AND
BY SUNDAY, LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS THE AREA AS 850MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO GET TO AROUND +19C WITH HUMIDITY ALSO CREEPING
BACK UPWARD AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
SPEAKING OF THE FRONT, THERE'S BEEN A SLOWING TREND IN ITS APPROACH,
SO CHANCES FOR PRECIP HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST
EXPECTED TO STAY DRY AT THIS POINT, EXCEPT MAYBE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE POPS REMAIN AT 20-30%. THE FRONT BEGINS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN
HOT MONDAY, AND THEN TEMPERATURES MAY COME DOWN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS (20K
FT) DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS FROM A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGH HUMIDITY AND NEARLY-CALM CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS COULD PRODUCE SOME MARINE FOG OVER THE MIDCOAST, WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT RKD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VIS
EXPECTED TO START BY 17-19Z AND LINGER THROUGH 00Z WITH HIT/MISS
CONVECTION. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO POSE A RISK OF GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT AT TIMES, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF AN AUG-HIE LINE. OVER THE WEEKEND,
PREVAILING VFR DURING THE DAY, BUT THERE MAY BE VALLEY FOG AT
NIGHT. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY, BUT IT'S MORE LIKELY
SHOWERS AND STORM HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT, ENHANCED BY AN AFTERNOON THERMAL
GRADIENT. TONIGHT WINDS WILL EASE FURTHER AND TURN TO THE NORTH
OR VARIABLE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THURSDAY,
BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN 10- 15KT OR LESS GENERALLY. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT WITH WEAK WINDS AND <1FT SWELLS OF 9
SECONDS.
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY BECOME TIGHT ENOUGH TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...VERANSKY
LONG TERM...COMBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page