482
FXUS61 KGYX 050627 CCA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
227 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WEEKEND GRADUALLY GETS WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HOT
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
500MB LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. WE'LL STILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THOUGH,
AND A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL CROSS OVERHEAD. THESE WILL BRING
MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES DO
START TO TREND BACK UPWARD INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST TODAY, BUT DEWPOINTS REMAINING 50S WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS COMFORTABLE AS WE MIX DOWN THE DRY AIR ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS GETTING LOW-
LEVEL RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED TO
THE SOUTH. MOST SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
IMPACTS: AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NH AND SOUTHWESTERN ME ON
SUNDAY (AND MONDAY FOR THAT MATTER). A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST DETAILS: THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH INCREASING WAA ON
SUNDAY AS H5 RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE MIDDLE 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS (A FEW COULD BE STRONG), IT WILL
BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THESE
WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GREATER
ACCUMULATED HEAT STRESS. A LINGERING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE FAR NORTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
ON MONDAY, SENDING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM
AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS A RESULT, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS. THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PERHAPS BRING
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BUT THE SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS
LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT
WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND HIGHS INTO THE
80S AND LOWS INTO THE 60S. BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING LOOKS TO LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE PASSING
DISTURBANCES BRINGING A DAILY CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
AVERAGES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
LOCALLY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MON-WED PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA. SOME
PATCHY FG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
VALLEY AND COASTAL TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IN AREA AND TIMING
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. NO LLWS IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF
ANY -TSRA.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS DO LOOK TO INCREASE SOME TONIGHT,
BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUSTS LOOK
MOSTLY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT.
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AND SEAS OF
2-5 FT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS CROSS NEAR OR OVER THE
WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ012-
018>020-023-033.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MEZ027-028.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ006-
008>010-012>015.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/COMBS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER/TUBBS
LONG TERM...CORNWELL/TUBBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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