161
FXUS61 KGYX 241741
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
141 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING ABOVE 90
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICK TO EXIT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MOSTLY QUIET TONIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THRU CANADA.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT
APPRECIABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CONTINUE TO FEED HIGHER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA TO SLOW THE DROP. OVERNIGHT READINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE ONLY FEATURE TO
WATCH WILL BE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MI. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
DECAYING REMNANTS OF THIS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ME MTNS AND MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY. TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE HOVERING NEAR 70 DEGREES.
THE RESULTING AREA OF 95 TO 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES IS
COVERED BY THE CURRENT HEADLINE WELL.
THAT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO
SLIP SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION. TIMING OF THE FRONT SEEMS TO
HAVE SPED UP FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES...WHICH DOES REDUCE THE SEVERE
THREAT FOR AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF THE
MTNS...BUT I DO NOT LIKE THE SIGNAL AS MUCH AS I DID THIS PAST
SUN. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BIT WEAKER...AND INSTABILITY NOT
QUITE AS HIGH. THAT BEING SAID THERE IS A CORRIDOR ALONG THE
COAST AND NEAR INTERIOR WHERE CAPE WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO AT OR
ABOVE 1000 J/KG. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE PRIMARILY STRAIGHT AND
NOT QUITE AS LONG AS SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SPLITTING
CELLS...BUT OVERALL I EXPECT SHORT LINES AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILE THIS LIKELY POINTS TOWARDS A
PULSE STORM SET UP. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WINDS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH AND ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AS FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, BRINGING A DRY DAY TO
THE AREA. IT WON'T FEEL MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH HIGHS
ONLY COMING DOWN SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 80S, BUT IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING IN
SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS OF THE LOCATION/AMPLITUDE
OF THE WAVE, SO CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW ON WHICH AREA(S)WILL
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES OR THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. THAT SAID,
THERE IS MORE OF A SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLES FOR SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NH INTO SW ME AS SEEING THE BETTER CHANCES AT THIS
POINT.
ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THEN QUICKLY
BECOMES CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WITH HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER
SOME OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT LOOKS TO CROSS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY MAY START TO SEE
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE HEAT/HUMIDITY, BUT THAT DEPENDS IF THAT
FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA BY THEN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES TUESDAY AND MAYBE
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWS A TROUGHING PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST US FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, SO WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRI.
AS FRONT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MTNS. GIVEN THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WITH SHRA/TSRA I DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION IN TAFS JUST YET...EVEN THOUGH THE EARLY PRECIP MAY
REACH HIE BY 18Z. BEHIND THE FRONT A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR
IS ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY, BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, AND THERE MAY BE LOW CEILINGS OR FOG OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. VFR SHOULD RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY, AND THEN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE GOING INTO
TUESDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP FOG AT BAY UNTIL THE FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COASTLINE
FRI. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE WITH MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDCOAST POINTS INTO PENOBSCOT BAY.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY, BUT AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH AND SHIFT THE HIGH TO
THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND
MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ018>020-
023>025-033.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ027-028.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ006-008>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...COMBS
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