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FXUS61 KGYX 260008
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
808 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ARRIVE TONIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE
IS QUICK TO EXIT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
8:05PM UPDATE... UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR TONIGHT FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO 2 MILES IN JACKMAN, AND FOREST RANGERS REPORT SMELLING THE
SMOKE AT THE SURFACE. EXPECTING THIS TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, COOLER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY...
CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY LOW. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
SOME CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...BUT WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WESTERLY AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS STABLE MTN WAVE
CLOUDS IN THE MID LEVELS...SUGGESTING SOME STABLE LAYER STILL
EXISTS WITHIN THE COLUMN. WITH THE FRONT ALREADY MOVING INTO THE
MTNS THAT IS LEAVING US LITTLE TIME TO DESTABILIZE AND REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO PRODUCE STORMS WITHOUT THE FRONTAL FORCING.
SO ANY MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CONFINED TO VERY NEAR
THE COASTLINE AND EVEN THEN I HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING BECAUSE I JUST DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THAT LIKELY. THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CLEAR THE COAST AROUND 5 PM OR SO.
OTHERWISE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN AROUND 90 TO THE UPPER 90S. TONIGHT DRIER AIR ARRIVES
AND IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT BREEZY...SO SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS POSSIBLE. LOW 50S AND MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE NOTCHES...WHILE READINGS AROUND 60 ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MTNS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WARM TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH COLD WATER TEMPS NORTH OF CAPE
ELIZABETH TO WARRANT ANOTHER BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT. I WILL
ALLOW THE CURRENT STATEMENT TO EXPIRE BEFORE ANY ADDITIONAL ONE
IS ISSUED.
OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT WILL BE COMFORTABLE...BUT THE DEGREE OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS IN QUESTION. CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
WHICH MAY BE SLOW THE COOLING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE
COMFORTABLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SATURDAY'S HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST ON SUNDAY AS A
500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
TIME AROUND WITH THE WAVE'S LOCATION TRENDING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH,
WHICH IS WHAT MUCH OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT
YESTERDAY. THE FOCUS WILL BE ON SOUTHERN NH AS THE WAVE
INTERSECTS A BOUNDARY THAT LOOKS TO RESIDE AROUND THE NH/MA BORDER.
HIGH PWATS NEARING 2.00" AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL FAVOR
EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY REPEATING
CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS. WPC HAS PLACED SW NH IN A MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WITH MOST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AND MOSTLY ELEVATED IN
NATURE. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS
PORTIONS SOUTHERN NH WHILE TEMPERATURES FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
EAST HAVE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THIS WAVE, SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY, PROVIDING
THE SUBSIDENCE FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL RAMP BACK UPWARD WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND DEWPOINTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S IN SOME AREAS.
ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, AND THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FURTHER INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES POTENTIALLY EVEN CLIMBING A DEGREE OR TWO ON TOP OF MONDAY'S.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA, SO WEDNESDAY COULD END UP BEING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER OR STILL PRETTY WARM WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
THERE'S HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT HAVING CLEARED THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING IN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST.
SO IT'S POSSIBLE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO BRING A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. OF NOTE: THE GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH WITH FRONT AS OTHER GUIDANCE. IF THIS
IS THE CASE, SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS IS A WEEK
OUT, AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE AND HAZE BRING MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
LIKELY LINGERING THE LONGEST AROUND HIE AND LEB INTO MIDDAY
SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME CALM CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR
RADIATION FOG TO FORM IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...LIKE NEAR
LEB AND HIE.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF SEEING RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS. FOG MAY THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT THEN VFR IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A FRONT APPROACHES, BUT
LOW CEILINGS/FOG LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT,
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THRU SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL, HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS AS A
WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE
POTENT FRONT TOWARD MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ027-028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...COMBS
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