835
FXUS61 KGYX 281803
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
203 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
BRINGING CHANCES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT MAY
STALL CLOSE ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND AND
BRING SOME RELIEF ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE PRESENT
ACROSS SE NH AND FAR SW ME IS SUPPORTED BY A LITTLE MORE GROWTH
TO THE CU FIELD, SO I KEPT THE MENTION OF BRIEF, ISOLATED
SHOWERS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
A COUPLE OF THINGS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC MAY BRING SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND.
THE NEXT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE SEA FOG THAT WAS VERY EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING HAS STEADILY ERODED ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WELL OFFSHORE. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
FAVORABLE GOING INTO TONIGHT, BUT I'M NOT AS CONFIDENT AS I WAS
EARLIER ON HOW MUCH WILL MAKE IT BACK. THE MIDCOAST STILL HAS
THE BETTER POTENTIAL (AND COULD BE DENSE) AND POTENTIALLY
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TOWARD
PORTLAND AND AUGUSTA. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY
IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ANY MORNING FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUESDAY WITH A FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED NEAR OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE MAINE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE SEABREEZE ALTOGETHER, BRINGING
EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. SPEAKING OF
WHICH, 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR
MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT GOOD MIXING WILL BRING
DOWN THAT DRIER AIR TO LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW
60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S. IT WILL BE A HOT DAY
REGARDLESS, BUT THE SILVER LINING IS THE DRIER AIR WILL KEEP
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURES, AND ALSO THE GOOD
MIXING WILL PROVIDE A BREEZE OF 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN NH TO SEE HEAT INDICES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND HAVE LEFT THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. YORK AND
CUMBERLAND ARE VERY BORDERLINE, AND I'M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
EXPAND THE ADVISORY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEWPOINTS BEING
LOWER THAN WHAT I HAVE IN THERE ALREADY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ASIDE FROM A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE. FLOW REMAINS WEAK, AND
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN SOME SPOTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. AN EMERGING POSITIVE PNA
PATTERN WILL HELP PUSH A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S, HEAT INDICES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE AIR
TEMPERATURE. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH A 65 KT SPEED MAX AT 500
MB WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND HELP GENERATE AROUND 45 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AMOUNT
OF SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WHILE CLOUD
COVER AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. SPC
HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF SW MAINE AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NH IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT DIMINISHING.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE STALLING FRONT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE TO THE
NH/MA BORDER WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHER SOLUTIONS SHIFT THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HAVE LARGELY STUCK WITH THE NBM DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH
MAINTAINS POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THE SECOND HALF THE WEEK THAN THE FIRST
HALF WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR THE REST OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH ELEVATED WILDFIRE
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY TODAY. MARINE FOG MAY
SPREAD INLAND TO PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT RKD THROUGH
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY ALSO
OCCUR AT PWM AND AUG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING
MORE THAN JUST A SLIGHT INTRODUCTION IN THE TAF FOR NOW. FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, AM MAINLY CONCERNED ABOUT VALLEY FOG
AT HIE AND LEB OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FOG LIFTS TUESDAY
MORNING WITH VFR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT HIE AND
LEB MAY AGAIN SEE VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED TS WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT WILL BRING LOCALIZED
RESTRICTIONS. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NH/MA BORDER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH
VFR LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH PREVAILING S TO SW FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ME COASTLINE. THIS MAY SHIFT WINDS TO WEST
OR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE LOW AND TROUGH
MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AND VEER WINDS TO MORE NORTHERLY.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY STALL NEAR THE WATERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS SOME FOG. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ008-010-
012>015.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...COMBS
SHORT TERM...COMBS
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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