326
FXUS61 KGYX 151812
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
212 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY FOR
FAIR WEATHER AND RISING TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE PLUME OF DRY AIR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US. THIS PLUME OF DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
ENVIRONMENT TO MIX OUT. DESPITE CALM WINDS ALOFT, A LIGHT BREEZE HAS
BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN, AND A FEW WEAK WIND GUSTS BEEN REPORTED THIS
MORNING. THE DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONDITIONS TO BECOME NEARLY CALM BY THE START OF THE EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER LOWS, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS PUT OVER THE REGION. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST PLACES. SATURDAY EVENING,
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOWS SHOULD BE
WARMER AS THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH ALLOWS FOR A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO FORM. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATTERN OVERVIEW: A 500MB TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS SUNDAY
BRINGING ABOUT OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THAN BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BEFORE WE GET A COUPLE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TROUGH DEPARTS OFF THE COAST FRIDAY
AND KEEPS TC ERIN OUT TO SEA, BUT AREA BEACHES MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS SURF AND AND AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK
DEPENDING ON IT'S TRACK.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
* RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOK
SCATTERED AT BEST. CONTINUED DRYING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED.
* WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT SEA, BUT MAY BRING AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK
TO AREA BEACHES AS IT PASSES LATE NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: SUNDAY: SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT AN EARLY LOOK AT HI-RES GUIDANCE
(12Z NAMNEST AND 06Z RRFS) SHOW SOLUTIONS THAT ARE SCATTERED AT
BEST. THE DAY LOOKS TO START MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, BUT THE TAIL END OF THE NAMNEST
AND THE RRFS SUGGEST THE LINE BECOMES MORE BROKEN AS IT GETS
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEABREEZE SO BETWEEN THAT AND JUST THE
TIME OF DAY (LATE EVENING) THAT STORMS WOULD BE NEARING THE
COAST, IT MAKES SENSE THIS MIGHT BE THE CASE. UNFORTUNATELY,
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AREAS THAT MISS OUT ON BENEFICIAL RAIN
ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
OUTSIDE OF A THUNDERSTORM QPF MAY BE LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH
AMOUNTS 0.10- 0.25". IF THE ENSEMBLE MAX SPEAKS TO WHAT MIGHT BE
OBSERVED IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, THEN WE
ARE TALKING MORE IN THE BALLPARK OF 0.50-0.75" WITH SOME
BULLSEYES SUGGESTING UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. PWATS DON'T LOOK
BAD WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AROUND 1.5", SO AN INCH OR SO UNDER
THE CORE OF A STORM SEEMS REASONABLE. LOOKS LIKE MODERATE CAPE
AND BULK SHEAR MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS, BUT THAT IS BETTER ASSESSED IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE HALFWAY DECENT LAPSE RATES (AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM) SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNBURST WIND THREAT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID-80S TO NEAR 90 SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOW TO MID 80S TO THE NORTH AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS COOL THINGS OFF EARLIER. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
LIKELY DECOUPLE AND DROP INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE AS
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH MAY SEE A STEADIER BREEZE BEHIND THE
FRONT, PREVENTING DECOUPLING AND KEEPING THEM IN THE 50S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: WE RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DRY AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A WELCOMED PATTERN
CHANGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-70S ACROSS THE
AREA ON BOTH DAYS, AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: THE NEXT (LOW) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
ON WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES SITUATED
NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND AND A COUPLE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO ROUND THE
BASE, CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS TOUGH
TO SAY MUCH MORE, BUT WITH HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN, AND CONTINUED
DRYING EXPECTED, EVERY CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
SOMETHING ELSE THAT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IS TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIN'S PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT'S
NORTHWARD TURN EARLY IN THE WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL
OUT TO SEA, BUT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT
RISK AT AREA BEACHES AS IT PASSES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
LONG TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING ABOUT LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-12KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SHIFT TO NORTHERLIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO 8-13KTS SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS OF 2-3FT ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS AND SEAS STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS
EARLY IN THE WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NORTHERLY AS A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WITH GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT AROUND 20KTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WILL BE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST AND DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY NECESSITATE SCAS.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...BARON
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