059
FXUS61 KGYX 160526
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
126 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE WARMER
AND MORE HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE REGION. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR
RAIN AROUND MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MODERATE BUT NOT OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF IT.
WITH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT, SHOWERS AND PROBABLY A BROKEN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP SO THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE. THE THREAT ENDS BY EARLY EVENING WITH A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING ON IN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
01Z NBM UPDATE...THE 500 MB PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERNMOST NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY AND COOL NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION AND WILL HELP STEER ERIN WELL OFFSHORE THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE LATEST NBM WAS A MODEST
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT
ENSEMBLES, MOST MEMBERS DEVELOP AN MCS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCES
AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVE THAT ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST
FLANK OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY. SOME MEMBERS TRACK THIS WAVE OVER
THE AREA WHILE OTHERS KEEP ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RESULT
CONVECTION THAT HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUSLY...
PATTERN OVERVIEW: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MID WEEK AS
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TOP OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
US. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER NEWFOUNDLAND
WILL PREVAIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND KEEPS TC ERIN OUT
TO SEA. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AREA BEACHES SEEING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LONG PERIOD SWELL AND AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK
DEPENDING ON IT'S TRACK.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY, WITH CONTINUED
DRYING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
* WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT SEA, BUT MAY BRING AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK
TO AREA BEACHES AS IT PASSES LATE NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: WE RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DRY AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A WELCOMED PATTERN
CHANGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-70S ACROSS THE
AREA ON BOTH DAYS, AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: THE NEXT (LOW) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME RIDGE ROLLING SHORT WAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS TOUGH TO SAY
MUCH MORE, BUT WITH HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN, AND CONTINUED DRYING
EXPECTED, EVERY CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
SOMETHING ELSE THAT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IS TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIN'S PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT'S
NORTHWARD TURN EARLY IN THE WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL
OUT TO SEA, BUT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT
RISK AT AREA BEACHES AS IT PASSES.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS. 1) VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY LIMIT VSBYS
AND CIGS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. 2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SFC
WINDS.
LONG TERM...DRIER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FAVORING VFR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG AT KLEB AND KHIE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...A FEW SCA GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTERNOON OTHERWISE QUITE WEATHER ON THE MARINE IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST AROUND
25 KTS ALONG THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM ERIN WILL
APPROACH THE GULF OF MAINE THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...BARON/SCHROETER
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