136
FXUS61 KGYX 170609
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
209 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
BY MID-WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY WITH IT'S
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE ABLE TO HEAT UP SUBSTANTIALLY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL FAVOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN BASED ON FRONTAL TIMING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
VERY STEEP WHICH WILL FAVOR WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF WIND
DAMAGE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS
SINK SOUTH OFF THE COAST IN THE 7-9PM WINDOW. THE DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALLOW THAT AREA TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE
INFLUENCE FROM THE FRONT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER, HAS A BETTER
CHANCE OF BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH SOME UPPER
50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. WINDS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO
LOOK QUITE BREEZY POST FRONT SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
15-20MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ON MONDAY WILL MEAN SUNNY, DRY, AND MUCH COOLER
WEATHER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING OF FORECAST PERIOD
- VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY
- SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY, DROUGHT CONTINUES!
- ERIN PASSES WELL OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY BRINGING A HIGH SURF THREAT
TUESDAY WILL BE A QUIET AND COOL DAY WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AS
A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. MIN RH SHOULD
DROP BELOW 35% IN SOME AREAS WITH FULL SOLAR INSOLATION ON THE
DROUGHT STRICKEN LANDSCAPE. BY WEDNESDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT PASSES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AROUND A 40% POP CHANCE
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH BUT WETTING RAIN CHANCES
LOOK LIMITED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN STILL THOUGH UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEKEND MOST LIKELY. ON THURSDAY
ERIN WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA, BUT WILL STILL BE
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST 500 MILES. ONE VERY INTERESTING
THING IS HOW GUIDANCE KEEPS ERIN A MAJOR HURRICANE SO FAR NORTH. THE
BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE LONG PERIOD SWELL THAT WILL BRING
DANGEROUS HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE COASTLINE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR HIGH SURF ADVISORIES.
BESIDES THIS THERE WILL BE NORTH WINDS KEEPING THE REGION DRY ONCE
AGAIN. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP ON EYE ON HOW GUSTY WINDS GET ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
POSSIBLE RAIN MAKER.
AVIATION
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH LIMITED STRATUS INCURSIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS KEEP THE THREAT FOR LOW MARINE
STRATUS LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
KLEB AND KHIE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SEAS AND WIND GUSTS STAY MOSTLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WHEN
GUSTS AROUND 25KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE WATERS
MAY BRING A FEW HOURS OF SCA CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE FRONT MAKES IT'S APPROACH. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH WEEK WITH A LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM ERIN EXPECTED TO REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY
THURSDAY AND LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PERIOD WAVES OF UP TO 10
FEET. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SCA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...DUMONT
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