880
FXUS61 KGYX 180536
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
136 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG WILL
LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED, WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IF CLOUDS DO NOT
THICKEN TOO EARLY.
DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE WEEK REMAINS
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE INCREASING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS FROM HURRICANE ERIN PASSING OFFSHORE, STARTING BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THESE PEAK ON FRIDAY, AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGES
-OVERALL TREND FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
-WARMING TREND FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
LOOKING AT A COLD START ON TUESDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
40S, AND WITH LIGHT WINDS WE CAN EXPECT STEAM FOG OVER INLAND
WATER BODIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON TUESDAY WITH JUST A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS. RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE S WILL TRY
TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL COUNTERACT
MUCH OF IT KEEPING DEWPOINTS <50F. CLOUDS DRIFT IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT MODELS ARE STARTING
TO RECOGNIZE THE MOISTURE-STARVED AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT AND HAVE
BACKED OFF ON BOTH POPS AND QPF. MOST AREAS WILL BE LUCKY TO GET
0.1" OUT OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH BEST PROBS IN THE NORTH. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRI AND
SAT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S RETURNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IS LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH MOST TERMINALS
LIKELY TO SEE NORTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 15KTS AT TIMES AND COASTAL
TERMINALS LIKE PWM AND PSM COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. WIND
GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING
ONSHORE. VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY TUE MORNING.
LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH
MIDWEEK THAT WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-
SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
PERHAPS WED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...ANY SCA GUSTS SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING WITH
WINDS GOING LOCALLY ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THEN THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM ERIN MAKES ITS WAY TO THE GULF OF MAINE.
LOOKING AT LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 12-15 SEC REACHING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, GROWING TO 17-20 SEC THU INTO FRI. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK ON FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH SEAS >5' FOR MUCH
OF THE COASTAL AREA. HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT ALL BUT
GUARANTEED, AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGH SURF CONDITIONS FOR AT
LEAST THE MIDCOAST. WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE <10KT WITH
PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AVIATION
MARINE...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CLAIR/JAMISON
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