787
FXUS61 KGYX 190502
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
102 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH A
WEAK TROUGH TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY LATE WEEK AND TO
START OFF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE A COOL DRY FLOW. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE
EXPECTED. SKIES LOOK TO END UP MORE IN THE PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE WILL
SEE CONTINUED DRYING AT THE SURFACE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ONCE AGAIN DROP TO AROUND 35-45% DURING PEAK HEATING. OVERALL,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG DISSIPATES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
WILL START TO SEE CLOUD COVER INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES
FROM PLUMMETING LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, BUT IT
WILL STILL BE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND MID- TO UPPER 40S TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z NAMNEST
AND 12Z HRRR SUGGEST SHOWERS MAY BE SEE AS EARLY AS AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THEM SO KEPT CHANCES LOW DURING THAT TIME.
MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL MEMBERS
THAT BRING SOME MEANINGFUL RAIN TO SOUTHERN NH. THAT IS WHERE
OUR HIGHEST POPS ARE, WITH THE REST OF THE CWA STRUGGLING TO GET
WETTING RAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN THING TO WATCH IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE
INCREASING WAVE ACTION FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN, WHICH WILL BE
PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND
INCREASING SWELLS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BRING OUR GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
PREVIOUSLY...
ONCE THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM PASSES, ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. THIS DRY WEATHER IS OWED TO AN
UPPER RIDGE STEADILY BUILDING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AS THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM NHC HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN PASSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY EXTRA MOISTURE THAT
WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER,
LONG- PERIOD SWELLS FROM ERIN ARE MODELED TO BEGIN ARRIVING FROM
MID TO LATE WEEK, LIKELY BRINGING HIGH SURF TO THE COAST AS
WELL AS HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. HIGHS GO FROM THE
70S THURSDAY TO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY SHIFTING THE HIGH TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS IN NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND SENDS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
THINGS CAN ALWAYS CHANGE, BUT WITH AT THIS POINT THERE IS A
PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FROM ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FRONT TO BRING
MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY OR MONDAY,
BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OTHER THAN
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO GO ONSHORE MIDDAY.
LONG TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW OTHER THAN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE NH TERMINALS HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM PASSES, PRIMARILY VFR THURS-SAT OTHER THAN THE
POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG AT HIE AND LEB.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY TONIGHT, THAN BACK TO SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW 10KTS.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH LATE
WEEK AS LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN (PASSING WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS) ARRIVE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, LIKELY REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS WILL START
TO COME DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT COULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALSO
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE WEST.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...COMBS/TUBBS
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