199
FXUS61 KGYX 200555
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
155 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST NH AND FAR SW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THURSDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY FOR FAIR
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SUNDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
BY JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT WILL BE A LOT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER, DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
GENERALLY RELEGATED TO SOUTHERNMOST NH AND YORK COUNTY ME. THE
RESULT WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH LOWER 70S NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT
AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES AWAY WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY RESULT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CT AND PEMI
RIVER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN THING TO WATCH IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO
BE FOR INCREASED WAVE ACTION AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN, WHICH IS PROGGED TO CROSS ROUGHLY 500
MILES EAST OF OUR COASTLINE ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING BACK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A RATHER STRONG ENSEMBLE SIGNAL FOR SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST
OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRANSLATE EAST WITH ONE
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MODELS DO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING, WITH SOME MODELS
KEEPING SUNDAY MOSTLY DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE STUCK WITH
THE NBM WHICH BRINGS POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS NH AND NW
MAINE WITH POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POPS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN A
SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO QPF WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS AROUND 0.25
TO 0.5 INCHES. TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE MOVES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NH
TERMINALS. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT IN FOG NIGHT, BUT HIGHEST CHANCES ARE
ACROSS NH.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG AT KLEB AND KHIE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL START BUILDING AS LONG- PERIOD
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE ERIN BEGIN ARRIVING OVER THE
WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WAVE HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 5 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT BUILDING TO 10 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHROETER/TUBBS
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