140
FXUS61 KGYX 201812
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
212 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR FAIR WEATHER INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HURRICANE ERIN WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM BRINGING HIGH SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY AIR HAS MADE ACCUMULATING RAINFALL DIFFICULT TO COME BY
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN NH, WHERE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW PARTS OF CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
BETWEEN 0.25" TO 0.50" OF NEEDED RAINFALL. AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROP
OFF TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND THEN BASICALLY
NOTHING MEASURABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA (ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON).
SOUTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE THE PLACE THAT SEES THE
STEADIER LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE RESPONSIBLE 500MB WAVE
PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, AND DRIER AIR WORKING
IN WILL BRING SOME CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AND THOSE THAT CLEAR OUT COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY RIVER VALLEYS AND THOSE FEW AREAS THAT
SAW MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ANY FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY 8 TO 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN NH IN THE MORNING, WHERE
MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE CLOUD COVER TO HANG ON IN
THE MORNING, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
ASIDE FROM THE SENSIBLE WEATHER, LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE AND PRODUCE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALONG THE COAST.
SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TO
BRING A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ALONG
WITH VALLEY FOG. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE CLOSER TO THE THE COAST AND
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MORE MIXED...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERVIEW: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE HURRICANE ERIN PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM ERIN WILL BE
PEAKING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO AREA BEACHES. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW
NORMAL.
IMPACTS:
*HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM ERIN DIMINISHING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
*LARGE NEAR SHORE WAVES WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION AND
BRING THE THREAT FOR SPLASH OVER AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FAIR SKIES WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY AND MID 80S ON SATURDAY. THE FORECAST
TRACK OF HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE SYSTEM MAKING ITS CLOSEST PASS TO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY
MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM ERIN WILL BE PEAKING AT AROUND 8 FEET AT 17
SECONDS. LARGE NEAR SHORE WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL OCCUR AROUND
THE TIME OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT (11 PM EDT) HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE, WHILE THESE LARGE
NEAR SHORE WAVES WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION AND THE THREAT
OF SPLASH OVER. LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALL WITH THE LATEST NBM COMING IN WITH HIGHER POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS WITH
ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAINING NEAR 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BRING SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL WHILE IT MAY NOT PUT TOO MUCH OF A DENT INTO ONGOING
DEFICITS THAT HAVE BEEN BUILDING THIS SUMMER. TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...LIGHT RAIN WILL PRIMARILY BE SEEN AT CON, MHT, AND
PSM AND MAY CAUSE MVFR VISBYS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING
BY THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO OCCUR AT THESE SITES INTO
TONIGHT, AND THEN WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR THE REST OF THURSDAY AND MOSTLY
THURSDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH HIE AND LEB COULD SEE VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME RESTRICTIONS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A FRONT BRINGS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY EVENING
WHEN THE LARGER SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE ERIN ARRIVE. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE ENE/NE ON THURSDAY, BUT THEN BECOME NE/NNE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERIN MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS SEAS ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD.
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO
HIGH SEAS AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM ERIN WILL SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STEADY NE WINDS FRIDAY MORNING WILL RELAX AND
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A RETURN SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ023>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NHZ014.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ151-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ153.
NEAR TERM...COMBS
SHORT TERM...COMBS
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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