769
FXUS61 KGYX 221749
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
149 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL IMPACT AREA BEACHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HURRICANE ERIN TRACKS INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK FAVORING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HURRICANE ERIN IS NOW ACCELERATING ENE AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
WHILE SWELL HEIGHTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND PEAK TONIGHT.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
THE SWELL FROM ERIN SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS ERIN PULLS FARTHER AWAY
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND 50S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS, SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE WINDS THAT COULD GUST AROUND 20 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOSER TO 80
DEGREES FOR HIGHS. LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND STARTING SATURDAY MORNING WHILE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS COMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPS.
IMPACTS: FOR AREAS THAT MISS RAINFALL THAT WILL SERVE TO DEEPEN
THE RAINFALL DEFICITS.
FORECAST DETAILS: THE FOCUS THRU THE EXTENDED WAS MAINLY ON
PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE EXPANDING DROUGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STARTING AROUND MIDWEEK THERE IS GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS...BUT THE NBM GUIDANCE HAD A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS SO I DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES.
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP BEGINS SUN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LOW/SUB-TROPICAL LOW FORMING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE SOME MOISTURE INTO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER
ENSEMBLES ARE QUITE DRY THRU MOST OF SUN COMPARED TO NBM POP. I
CUT BACK ON MOST POP OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS UNTIL OVERNIGHT SUN AND
EVEN THEN IT IS MOSTLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE MON INTO TUE WHEN UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO
INCREASE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED NEARBY...MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS THRU THE AREA...AND MID LEVEL RIDGING POKING INTO
THE REGION THERE ARE SOME INGREDIENTS THAT LOOK VERY MUCH LIKE A
PRE WITHOUT THE REAL TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST IT MAY VERY MUCH ACT LIKE IT AND ALLOW SOME OF
THAT MOISTURE TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONT AND ACTUALLY BRING
AN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT AREA MISSED ALMOST
ENTIRELY BY THIS EVENT...AND AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD
INCREASE THE RAINFALL DEFICITS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE CT VALLEY AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS TO KLEB AND KHIE.
LONG TERM...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE SUN ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN ME TERMINALS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH MON INTO TUE AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AND OFFSHORE MOISTURE TRIES TO
WORK IN. AREAS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE...AND LOCAL IFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...ELEVATED SEAS FROM ERIN WILL CONTINUE SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SUN WHILE LARGE SWELL FROM
ERIN CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. THE SWELL FROM PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK...BUT 5 FT SEAS LOOK TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LONG PERIODS AND THE SMALL CRAFT HAZARD IS LOW OUTSIDE OF
SHOALING AREAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND UP TO 1.5 TO 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE
MAY PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH-OVER DURING THE
LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT, AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
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