986
FXUS61 KGYX 050648
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A WIDER AREA.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE HUDSON VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WASH OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS
MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS NH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AS THEY CROSS INTO MAINE THROUGH DAY BREAK. IN THE
WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASED OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY THAT WILL ENHANCE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT WARMER AIR
ALOFT INTO THE AREA WITH T8S CLIMBING TO AROUND +15C. MIXING
WILL HELP SCATTER CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND MIX DOWN THIS
WARMER AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30
MPH WHILE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. OTHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY AFTER MORNING SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD
TONIGHTWITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE EAST
SATURDAY WITH 140+ KT UPPER JET STREAK SLIDING ACROSS QUEBEC.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH FROPA TIMING FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
WILL ALSO AID IN DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT NEAR THE FRONT. THE UPPER
JET AND FRONT WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHILE HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z HREF
MEAN BRINGS A CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE BENEATH A CORRIDOR
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. THIS ALIGNMENT OF SHEAR AND
CAPE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPC EXPANDING THE MARGINAL RISK ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS.
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS IT WILL
BECOME WARM AND HUMID SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS
INCREASING OVER NW ZONES EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL
PROGRESS ESE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REACHING THE COAST BEFORE
SUNSET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
EARLY MORNING LONG TERM UPDATE...THE 01Z NBM HAS BEEN
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST AND YIELDS NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM THE GOING FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE VARIOUS
MEMBERS OF GUIDANCE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONTAL APPROACH.
PREVIOUSLY...
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES SAT NIGHT, CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE,
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SUNDAY. SKIES CLEAR OUT NICELY FOR MONDAY MORNING, AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING PRETTY
DRY, THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SHY CHANCE TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S
MOST PLACES.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF LOW CIGS CROSSING THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
SITES THROUGH MID MORNING WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR AT
KAUG AND KRKD. SHOWERS END BY MID MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF IFR LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
LONG TERM...
LOWERED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MIDWEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP TODAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING
SATURDAY EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO FORM OVER LAND AND THEN TRACK INTO THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...
SEAS LOWER TO 2-4FT AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLIES SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN TO 5-10KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
NEAR TERM...SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...EKSTER/PALMER
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