839
FXUS61 KGYX 051838
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A WIDER AREA. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
A FEW SHOWERS PERCOLATING OVER THE KENNEBEC VALLEY. THE LOWER
STRATUS CLOUDS SEEN ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND
THIS EVENING. WARMER LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST WILL HELP PULL WARM AND MOIST AIR ONSHORE. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD
FORM OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO A FOGGY TOMORROW MORNING IN
AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ANY LINGERING FOG TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING. A MUGGY AND HUMID MORNING IS EXPECTED, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE CLEARER SKIES
IN THE MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET PRETTY
WARM, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR AN ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND
POSSIBLY UPTO 2000J OF CAPE IN SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTION INITIATING IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING, AND COULD BE A FAIRLY STRONG LINE OF STORMS THAT MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, PWATS NEAR 1.8", AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW FOR EMBEDDED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE
MAY BE SOME WINDOWS IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW- LEVEL JET COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND LEAD TO SOME
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE THE STORMS ROLL IN. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THESE GUSTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND THE SEACOAST,
THOUGH A FEW GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND IN THE MIDCOAST EITHER. RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE LOCALIZED,
BUT MOST PEOPLE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BETWEEN 0.5 - 1 INCH OF RAIN
FROM THE FRONT. A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS OF UPTO 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
DESPITE THE MUCH NEEDED RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE RAIN WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH TO IMPROVE THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION, THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ANOTHER SLUG OF STEADY
STRATIFORM RAINFALL ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DETAILS: CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS JAMES BAY ON SUNDAY.
PROGRESSION ISN'T ENOUGH TO NUDGE UPPER JET OUT OF PLACE, WITH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BAROCLINIC LEAF IN SIMULATED SATELLITE
HINTS AT STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING SUNDAY. INCLUDED
THIS IN POPS AND QPF, BUT BELIEVE RATES SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER IS
QUITE DRY, AND MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DROP RH VALUES.
COLUMN MOISTURE IS LIMITED, BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME CU
THROUGH MIDDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK
AND WILL BE THE ROCK IN THE RIVER. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. SOME HINTS
IN GUIDANCE A COLD FRONT/BACK DOOR FRONT TRIES MOVING DOWNSTATE
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MOISTURE SUPPLY IS THIN AND MAY NOT
PROVIDE MUCH MORE THAN SOME SHOWERS. WITH PRECIP THIS WEEKEND
NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY ADVANCE DROUGHT STATUS, THE
INCOMING DRY SPELL FOR NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED
DROUGHT EXTENSION.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...LOWERED RESTRICTIONS TODAY WILL IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT OF THE
AREA. TONIGHT, SOME LLWS IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 10PM TONIGHT
UNTIL 3AM TOMORROW. AFTER THIS PERIOD OF LLWS, RESTRICTIONS WILL
LOWER AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS START TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR IS LIKELY AFTER
THE FOG MIXES OUT SATURDAY MORNING, BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL LOWER
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE
AT LEAST A LITTLE AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION BUT OVERCAST
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...MVFR CEILINGS ON SUNDAY AS RA SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
OTHERWISE, CEILINGS TREND VFR WHICH SHOULD BE DOMINANT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LIKELY TO
IMPACT HIE AND LEB.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15-25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
SEAS OF 4-6FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME. SATURDAY
NIGHT, WINDS SLACKEN AND SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTHERLIES BY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-4FT.
LONG TERM...WAVE HEIGHTS 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY, TRENDING
CALMER INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVERHEAD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WIND DIRECTION MOSTLY VARIABLE WITH NO
DISTINCTIVE PRESSURE SYSTEMS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-
152>154.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...PALMER
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...CORNWELL
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