044
FXUS61 KGYX 070639
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
239 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD HAS STALLED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO RIDE NORTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE WELCOMED BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO RELIEVE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HEADING INTO
MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETS UP OUR NEXT STRETCH OF
PLEASANT BUT DRY WEATHER. SOME CHILLY NIGHTS WILL BE IN STORE
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS STALLED FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE.
THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING
ON THE STALLED BOUNDARY. AS THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BLOSSOM
BRINGING A SOAKING RAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES ALONG COASTAL
MAINE INTO SE NH. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER WITH STEADY WEST WINDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO MID 70S ACROSS COASTAL MAINE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES: NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE
EXTENDED...BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND DEEPENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
IMPACTS: ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MON NIGHT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
FORECAST DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
MORE OR LESS HOLD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THE SET UP
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO HAVE ORIGINS OVER CENTRAL CANADA...AND EVEN WITH SOME
MODERATION AS IT PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL TO BE COLDER THAN OUR LAST STRETCH OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SO MON NIGHT I DID BLEND IN SOME MOS GUIDANCE SO GET
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS DOWN IN THE MID 30S. WE MAY HAVE TO ADD
FROST TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE ZONES IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRECIP TO
MENTION THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME
SHOWERS THAT SKIRT THE COASTAL WATERS...IT SHOULD BE DRY OVER
LAND. EVEN WITH THE RAINFALL TODAY THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONT STALLED ALONG THE
COAST WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG A LINE FROM KCON TO KAUG AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ALLOWING
FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE. VFR IS LIKELY
FOR SITES ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES REGIONAL WEATHER.
VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN AT LEAST THE NORTHERN VALLEYS EACH
NIGHT...AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH HIE AND LEB. THE
RECENT DRY WEATHER MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF FOG IN VALLEYS FARTHER
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO HELP TO PROMOTE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES...SO I ANTICIPATE WIND SHIFTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND MIDDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROWOUT THE PERIOD. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE WATERS WILL
PROVED A FOCUS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ASIDE FROM SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MIDWEEK SKIRTING THE COASTAL WATERS...SEA
BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL PRETTY MUCH BE IT FOR
WEATHER.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...BARON/LEGRO
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHROETER
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHROETER
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