140
FXUS61 KGYX 071825
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WHILE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN WELCOMED, TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO RELIEVE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HEADING INTO
MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETS UP OUR NEXT STRETCH OF
PLEASANT BUT DRY WEATHER. SOME CHILLY NIGHTS WILL BE IN STORE
WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTH UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, BUT THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO
NEAR NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.
TO THE WEST, LOW CLOUDS ARE CLEARING WITH BREAKS OF SUN MIXING
IN. CUMULUS IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING, STILL AMID LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ANOTHER WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS NY, AND WILL PUSH EAST
INTO THIS EVENING. THIS COULD PROMPT SOME SHOWERS OUT OF THE
CUMULUS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
SKIES CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR GOOD COOLING BEHIND
THIS MORNING'S DISTURBANCE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 ARE FORECAST. FALLING TEMPS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND IS CALM
WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG MAY BE DENSE FOR THE EARLY MORNING MON
COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL STILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FOR MONDAY, BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TO KEEP THE DAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S AFTER
A DREARY SUNDAY. DAYTIME CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP, BUT SATURATED RH
LAYER IS VERY THIN, SO CLOUDS MAY HAVE LIMITED DEPTH.
DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND CLOUDS THIN QUICKLY. UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE, CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS AGAIN FALL INTO
THE 40S FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR, BUT VALUES INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS COULD LEAD TO FROST FORMATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, BUT NIGHTS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY SHORT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATTERN OVERVIEW: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH BROAD TROUGHING
ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WHILE THE
TROUGHING ACTS TO RUN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DETAILS: TUESDAY: TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE QUINTESSENTIAL
PERFECT FALL DAY AS MODELS SUGGEST A 1030MB HIGH OVERHEAD. AFTER
A COLD NIGHT TEMPERATURES ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW 70S
AREAWIDE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP,
HOWEVER WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS, IT LIKELY WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD. STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S IN THE NORTH, AND MID-
TO UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE WISE, BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TO
ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THESE WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH CLOUDS THAT WON'T RUIN A SUNNY DAY, BUT LOCATIONS ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MAY SEE SOME OF THE LOWER THICKER CLOUD COVER.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST SO IT IS NOT LIKELY ANY SHOWERS
MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR ZONES. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS PASS AND CONTINUES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR WILL DETERMINE
HOW EFFICIENTLY TEMPERATURES COOL, BUT WOULD THINK THEY WOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY TO WATCH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA. THIS LARGELY LOOKS
MOISTURE STARVED, BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
BE ABLE TO POP IN THE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK, AND WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH THESE SETUPS OVER THE PAST
MONTH OR SO, I AM INCLINED TO KEEP THINGS DRY. THIS ALSO LOOKS
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S, WITH LOWER 70S TO THE
NORTH. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT, AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 30S. SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS A BREEZE
STAYS UP OVERNIGHT PREVENTING DECOUPLING, BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 40S WITH THE
FRESH AIRMASS BUILDING IN.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE FULLY TAKES CONTROL AGAIN LATE
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN
FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND INTO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO PLAY, BUT FOR NOW
THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE LARGE AND UNCERTAIN SO HAVE STUCK WITH
THE NBM CONSENSUS WHICH KEEPS IT DRY. RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE
LARGE, SO DESPITE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN YESTERDAY (SATURDAY),
LARGE SCALE IMPROVEMENTS IN CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, AND WITH ANOTHER WEEK OF DRY WEATHER ON TAP THEY WILL
LIKELY BE MAINTAINED. WHAT WE HAVE WORKING WITH US THIS TIME OF
YEAR IS THE COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH LOWER
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES, SO AT THE SAME TIME LARGE SCALE
DETERIORATION OF CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED
EITHER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...TREND TOWARDS VFR WEST TO EAST FOR REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS, WILL STILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
700-1000 FT WHILE BKN/OVC DECKS SLOWLY RAISE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR INTERIOR
VALLEYS TONIGHT, HIE/LEB, BUT ALSO AUG AND POTENTIALLY CON. FOG
DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH A COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST
BEING THAT CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG SO LEB AND HIE MAY SEE IFR IMPACTS EACH NIGHT TO VARYING
DEGREES. THE SECOND EXCEPTION MAY BE THE ARRIVAL OF SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING ANS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY.
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WAVES 1
TO 2 FT INCREASING ON THE OUTER WATERS 2 TO 3 FT MON/MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2-3FT AND WIND GUSTS LESS THAN 20KTS. THE WINDS NEAR
20KTS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...BARON
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