146
FXUS61 KGYX 101721
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
121 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH FAIR WEATHER WHILE THE OVERNIGHTS WILL
BE COOL. ANOTHER EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THEN POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE
REMAINS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ANOTHER QUIET AFTERNOON IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A SURFACE LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANIC COAST AND WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE IN THE WAY OF SOME
WISPY CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND JUST SLIGHTLY
INLAND.
FOR TONIGHT, WE SHOULD GENERALLY SEE A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LOWER
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WESTERN MAINE VALLEYS WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE THE MID 30S.
REGARDING THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT, 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES ARE
SUGGESTING A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A HALF MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND THE INTERIOR. THUS, WE WILL
LIKELY AT LEAST SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE ALONG WITH THE USUAL VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT BUT STILL FAIRLY LIGHT.
AREAS THAT WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ALONG THE COAST, THE INTERIOR OF MAINE, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING SO MORE PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE USUAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. VALLEY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE LIKELY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOLLOWING THURSDAY'S DRY COLD FRONT, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT BACK ON TOP OF NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PROVIDING
MORE DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70-75F RANGE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL WITH MOST IN THE 40S, BUT 30S AND PATCHY FROST ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, LIGHT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S.
FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS MORE SUPPORT IN THE
ENSEMBLES IN THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMING CUTOFF ACROSS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING, AND THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE NOW TRENDING THIS
WAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AREA, AND THE NBM HAS TRENDED HIGHER IN POPS WITH
GENERALLY 30% ACROSS NH AND 20% ACROSS WESTERN ME IN THE SUN-TUES
TIMEFRAME, WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD IN FUTURE RUNS. THERE
IS THEN A BETTER SIGNAL FOR A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LIFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
AREAS, THE INTERIOR, AND IN THE VALLEYS.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OTHER
THAN THE CONTINUED CHANCES OF VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT HIE AND LEB. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ON TOP OF NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
AND POTENTIALLY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, AND DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HARGROVE/BARON
SHORT TERM...HARGROVE/BARON
LONG TERM...COMBS
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