333
FXUS61 KGYX 110538
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
138 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH FAIR WEATHER WHILE THE OVERNIGHTS WILL BE
COOL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. A PASSING FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A CUT OFF LOW DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
INCREASED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIR WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG LIFTS EARLY THIS MORNING. OPPOSING NW FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE SEABREEZE JUST HUGGING THE COAST TODAY,
ALTHOUGH THE NH SEACOAST COULD SEE A BRIEF SEABREEZE PASSAGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH IN
NORTHERNMOST NH AND NORTHERN OXFORD COUNTY ME TO ALLOW FOR AREAS
OF FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. THEREFORE A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S. A LATE DAY SEABREEZE IS LIKELY AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A CUT
OFF LOW HELPS TO BRING MORE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT AT
THIS POINT MODELS LOOKS TO BE TRENDING AWAY FROM THIS FEATURE.
FULL DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON TOP OF NEW ENGLAND INTO
SATURDAY, PROVIDING MORE DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
WITH MOST IN THE 40S, BUT 30S AND PATCHY FROST ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, LIGHT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S. HIGHS IN THE 70-75F RANGE ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED.
FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS MORE SUPPORT IN THE
ENSEMBLES IN THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMING CUTOFF ACROSS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING, AND THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE NOW TRENDING THIS
WAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AREA, AND THE NBM HAS TRENDED HIGHER IN POPS WITH
GENERALLY 30% ACROSS NH AND 20% ACROSS WESTERN ME IN THE SUN-TUES
TIMEFRAME, WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD IN FUTURE RUNS. THERE
IS THEN A BETTER SIGNAL FOR A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG. A SEABREEZE
FRONT SHOULD JUST HUG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT PSM LOOKS TO
THE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEABREEZES LOOK TO COME FARTHER INLAND ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY OTHER THAN THE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY AT HIE AND LEB. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ON TOP OF NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND
POTENTIALLY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, AND DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CLAIR/COMBS
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