330
FXUS61 KGYX 140308
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1108 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN MONDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEEPEN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
1100PM UPDATE...VARIOUS CLOUD DECKS AMONGST THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING, AND IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS WAY MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAIN BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED EAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING, LEAVING ONLY SOME UPPER CIRRUS ALONG THE COAST. TO
THE WEST, MID DECK WILL TRANSIT THE REGION OVER THE COMING
HOURS. HREF CEILING PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A LOWER
DECK DEVELOPING IN THE COMING HOURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
COAST, POTENTIALLY WITH SOME BUILD DOWN FOG IN SPOTS. HRRR GOES
STRONGLY WITH THIS ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE MIDCOAST, BUT KEEPS
OTHER LOCALES VOID OF LOWER CLOUDS. WILL MONITOR HOW THIS MID
DECK TRANSITS, AS THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN SFC COOLING AND HOW
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND
PERHAPS ENOUGH OF A MOIST LAYER, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY WILL
STAY DRY. SOME CAMS ALSO BRING IN COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NH THIS EVENING, BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS
WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LIFT WITH THESE FEATURES AND 100-200 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME DAYTIMES
SHOWERS, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP COVERAGE
ISOLATED WITH MOST AGAIN REMAINING DRY. PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT IN GENERAL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S FOR HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE
AND FRONT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S, EXCEPT SOME NORTHERN
VALLEYS MAY SEE LOWS CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD LEADING TO CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. AN
UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP ANY RAINFALL FROM
THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND. LOOKING BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THERE ARE
LIMITED TO NO SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE LATEST 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC SHOWING ODDS FAVORING BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR
TAF INCLUSION. FOR TONIGHT, THERE MAY BE FOG AND LOW STRATUS,
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF TIME. FOR SUNDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME, AND GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOG
IS LIKELY AT HIE AND LEB BUT ALSO POSSIBLE AT OTHER TERMINALS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG MOST NIGHTS THAT WILL LIKELY
BRING IFR/LIFR TO KLEB AND KHIE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SUNDAY AS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...COMBS/CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...COMBS
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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