741
FXUS61 KGYX 140626
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
226 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEK AND WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
DEEPEN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS MOVING THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. THE MOST
IMPACTFUL THING ABOUT THIS CLOUD DECK IS THAT IT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO FAST AND PREVENT VALLEY FOG FROM FORMING LIKE
PAST MORNINGS. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A SMALL AREA OF FOG/STRATUS
FORMING OVER THE MIDCOAST...BUT IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LAST
MUCH LONGER THAN SUNRISE.
THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE DURING PEAK HEATING. SO ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
ME. IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY ENOUGH TO
ALLEVIATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION THAT WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG. I HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR ALL MAJOR VALLEYS. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MON ALONG WITH WARM TEMPS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
EVENING LONG TERM UPDATE...MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES
TO BE THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKING UP RESIDENCE FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE NEAR MAX
PER 3 WEEK CENTERED CLIMO ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC, AND THIS AIDS
IN BRINGING A MSLP ANOMALY CLOSER TO ME/NH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, CONTINUED TO BLEND COOLER GUIDANCE IN TO
GOING FORECAST. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN, BUT
BACKGROUND VALUES WON'T BE AS COOL AS THIS WEEK TO START. THIS
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD EQUATE TO
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT WETTING RAIN LOOKS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD LEADING TO CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. AN
UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP ANY RAINFALL FROM
THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND. LOOKING BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THERE ARE
LIMITED TO NO SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE LATEST 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC SHOWING ODDS FAVORING BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SWING THRU THE
FORECAST ARE THIS MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE VALLEY FOG
AT BAY...BUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD
TO A DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK OVER THE MIDCOAST. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHETHER THIS WILL AFFECT ANY TAF SITE...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AUG AND RKD. LIKEWISE SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLATED AND AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE THEY AFFECT ANY TAF SITE
IS LOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...WITH
LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG MOST NIGHTS THAT WILL LIKELY
BRING IFR/LIFR TO KLEB AND KHIE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK THERE MAY BE FOG AND STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS
NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND FAIR WEATHER.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CORNWELL/SCHROETER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page