676
FXUS61 KGYX 150532
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
132 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY AND WILL HOLD OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEEPEN.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING A FRESH COLD AND DRY AIRMASS
TO NEW ENGLAND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF BESIDES THE VARIOUS AREAS OF FOG AND
STRATUS. INLAND THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE RADIATION FOG THRU
SUNRISE. THE OTHER AREA IS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OFF THE MIDCOAST. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUD
GRADUALLY EXPANDING. HI-RES FORECASTS HAVE THIS MOVING DOWN
TOWARDS THE SEACOAST THRU SUNRISE...OCCASIONALLY MOVING FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT THE COAST. THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN
THE RADIATION FOG...SO CURRENTLY I DO NOT HAVE THIS MENTIONED AS
FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT RATHER KEEP IT STRATUS.
OTHERWISE A PLEASANT AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
TONIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON FOG THREAT
FOR COASTAL AREAS. INLAND VALLEY SEEMS A LOCK AGAIN...BUT ALONG
THE COAST WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO ADVECT
MOISTURE BACK NORTH. THAT MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RAPIDLY
COOLING LAND PLUS FRICTIONAL EFFECTS MAY HELP TO FORCE A BAND OF
FOG ARCING ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT INTERIOR ZONES. IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THIS SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY NEED TO
ADD GREATER COVERAGE OR LOWER VISIBILITY. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS TUE
IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
EVENING LONG TERM UPDATE...AFTERNOON/EVENING GUIDANCE UPDATES
BRING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED. TWO MAIN WEATHER DRIVERS
THIS WEEK: VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT
LEADING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE WEEKEND. NBM CONTINUES TO
BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS NEXT WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO FOLLOW HOW PROGRESSIVE THE
LEADING COLD FRONT IS FRIDAY. COOLEST NIGHT MAY BE AFTER THIS
FRONT PASSES AND THE NEXT HIGH IS CENTERED OVERHEAD, WHICH
CONTINUES TO BE SAT NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERVIEW...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MUCH OF THE WEEK, WHILE LOW
PRESSURE STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE ARCTIC MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND.
DETAILS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A
MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS ALSO MODERATE, WITH 40S AND 50S BEING
MORE COMMON THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW
PRESSURE STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC, KEEPING ANY RAINFALL
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE STORM
TRACK AND MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH, THE FRONT LOOKS
TO BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FRONT LIKELY MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
THURSDAY NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH COOLER AIR MOVING
IN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WITH DRY CONDITIONS WORSENING
THROUGH THE WEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE WORST THIS
WEEK ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND FALLING DEW
POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE ARCTIC MOVES BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 60S LOOK LIKELY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS, AND WIDESPREAD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 30S. IT'S STILL
ALMOST A WEEK AWAY AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
DAYS, BUT IF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE WOULD BE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AS LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S. AGAIN, IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO CALL FOR THIS A
THIS POINT, BUT WITH THE COLD ORIGIN OF THE AIRMASS AND DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WILL NEED TO
MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TODAY WITH
LOCAL IFR OR LOWER IN VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
THIS WILL IMPACT LEB...HIE...AND CON. SOME MARINE STRATUS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MIDCOAST THIS MORNING...MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE COAST THRU SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
THAT THIS WILL MOVE INLAND ENOUGH TO IMPACT TAF SITES. TONIGHT
HOWEVER MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING ALL
ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. AREAS OF IFR OR
LOWER ARE MORE LIKELY IN ADDITION TO VALLEY FOG FARTHER INLAND.
LONG TERM...VFR PREVAILS DURING THE DAYTIME EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AND LEB AND HIE
EACH NIGHT, AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MARINE/RADIATION FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. AN
AREA OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
OFF THE MIDCOAST AND DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SEACOAST
THRU MORNING. BY TONIGHT THAT AREA OF FOG/STRATUS MAY
EXPAND...BUT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERLAND.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CLAIR/CORNWELL
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