095
FXUS61 KGYX 160600
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEEPEN. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A FRESH COOL AND DRY AIRMASS TO NEW
ENGLAND. UNFORTUNATELY, VERY LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF DRIFTING LOW PRESSURE IS ALLOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS SLOWLY
EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND BEFORE SUNRISE MAY MOVE INTO NH AND
PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN ME. OTHERWISE VALLEY FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MORE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. IN ADDITION THE MARINE FOG/STRATUS MAY
RETURN AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD.
THE LOW MAY ALSO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SEACOAST NH. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND/OR
QPF IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ANY HELP ON THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED...BUT STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
EARLY MORNING LONG TERM UPDATE...01Z NBM HAS BEEN INCORPORATED
INTO THE FORECAST AND THE RESULT IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DROUGHT WORSENS.
PREVIOUSLY...
OVERVIEW...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DETAILS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BRINGS SOME MORE
CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. A
STRAY SPRINKLE CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COASTLINE, BUT
OFFERS NO RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE LOW WEAKENS BY THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE
DAYTIME, AND THEN CROSSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, OFFERING LITTLE MORE THAT A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FRIDAY OFFERS ONE MORE SEASONABLY WARM DAY ALONG THE
COAST AS A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE ALLOWS TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S AGAIN. FURTHER NORTH, CAA WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGH THE
DAY, KEEPING HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS
ORIGINS IN THE ARCTIC. THIS BRINGS A MUCH COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS
THE NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF
THE STRETCH. A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT IS STILL
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME, WHICH IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 30S LOOK LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. SHOULD THE PASSING HIGH CENTER LINE UP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT, UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THRU WED. OVERNIGHT
VALLEY FOG WILL CREATE LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
HIE AND LEB. NEAR THE COAST MARINE FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AND
AFFECT COASTAL TERMINALS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THAT
MARINE FOG LAYER SO IT IS NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.
LONG TERM...VFR PREVAILS DURING THE DAYTIME EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AND LEB AND HIE EACH
NIGHT, AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MARINE/RADIATION FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. WHILE IT MAY PRIMARILY FORM AND MOVE
INLAND...SOME OF THE BAYS AND COVES MAY SEE LOWER VISIBILITY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CLAIR/EKSTER
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