171
FXUS61 KGYX 171130
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
730 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEEPEN. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A FRESH COOL AND DRY AIRMASS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HOWEVER HIGH CIRRUS NORTH OF MID ATLANTIC LOW IS
KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VALLEY FOG BY AN HOUR OR TWO COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...BUT A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER OVER SOUTHERN NH WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS AND WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
MID ATLANTIC LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN...AND NEAR THE COAST I
CANNOT RULE OUT MARINE FOG/STRATUS IN EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THU WILL BE A VERY MILD DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN AT 80 DEGREES FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET BEFORE ENTERING THE FORECAST
AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
EARLY MORNING LONG TERM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THE 01Z NBM HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE GOING
FORECAST AND YIELDS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SPECIFICS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FROST POSSIBLE WELL INLAND DURING THE
NIGHTS. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES
THAT THE COOL HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR YET
ANOTHER DRY WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY...
FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND BREEZY DAY, ESPECIALLY WHEN A
SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE FRONT
CROSSES, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE 70S IN SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING THE FIRST DOSE OF
ARCTIC AIR OF THE SEASON WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED AS LOWS IN THE 30S ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY AWAY
FROM THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH 20S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 60S,
BUT BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 70 AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE SIGNAL FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AS
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FAVORS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY
KEEPING ANY DISTURBANCES EITHER TO OUR NORTH OR TO THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
OVERCAST CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH, AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MORE FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST.
LONG TERM...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND MAYBE A RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURS
NIGHT AT LEB AND HIE. THERE MAY ALSO BE VALLEY FOG AT THESE
LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THRU THU. NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SOME ADVECTION FOG IS
POSSIBLE. IT HAS BEEN FORECAST BY MODEL GUIDANCE THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED...SO COVERAGE IF IT
DOES OCCUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
LONG TERM...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THU NIGHT, AND THEN A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS POTENTIALLY
REACHING MINIMAL SCA LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW POSSIBLY REACHING
SCA LEVELS AT TIMES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...COMBS/EKSTER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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