593
FXUS61 KGYX 081025
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS MARCHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH
STEADY RAIN MOVING ALONG IT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AROUND A
HALF INCH OF RAIN, WITH THE LUCKY ONES SEEING UPWARDS OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. RAIN ENDS RATHER QUICKLY BY MIDDAY WITH COLDER,
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS FAILING TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WEATHER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
DRY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
RAIN IS MARCHING STEADILY THRU THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR
THIS MORNING. SO FAR IT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY
STEADY...LIGHT RAIN. A FEW POCKETS MAY OCCASIONALLY SEE
MODERATE RATES...BUT IN GENERALLY THIS IS EXACTLY THE TYPE OF
SOAKING RAIN WE HAVE NEEDED.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH OF
QPF...WITH HIGHER END AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. ALREADY
SEEING A GOOD PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RAIN IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN VT
ALREADY. SO THE TIMING OF ENDING LIKELY POP BY MIDDAY SEEMS ON
TRACK. SHOWERY WEATHER MAY CONTINUE AFTER THAT...BUT GENERALLY
SPEAKING ONCE WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP IT DRY. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
STRONG CAA AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS MAY BE ESPECIALLY
GUSTY OVER THE AREA LAKES...WHERE WATER TEMPS REMAIN MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
CAA WILL KEEP THE BREEZE GOING OVERNIGHT BUT ALSO WILL BRING A
RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS. THE BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND FROST. HOWEVER SOME ZONES MAY DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING...SO FOR NOW I WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE
LOOK AT THE FORECAST AND DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY.
THU HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN CONTROL. THIS HIGH WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPS HOWEVER...AND DAYTIME READINGS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. WHILE NOT THAT FAR BELOW
NORMAL...COMPARED TO RECENT WEATHER THIS WILL FEEL VERY CHILLY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW DEW POINTS
ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS INTO
THE 20S ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND INLAND VALLEYS WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST
ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ACTIVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND H5 S/WV RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOWS
FALL INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST ON
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AND
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT FROM A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH WITH LOWS INTO THE
30/40S. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN BEGINS TO LOWER AS WE APPROACH
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW TRIES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD WHILE BEING BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO APPROACH AT LEAST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING US ADDITIONAL MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
AND PERHAPS BREEZY CONDITIONS. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH, WHICH WOULD BRING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERVIEW...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
LIKELY STALLS SOUTH OF THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DETAILS...
HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING A COOLER AIRMASS AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH, TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COASTLINE. A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE
LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY LOOK ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. SATURDAY THEN LOOKS ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES
WARMER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THE HIGH KEEPS THE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY BEGIN TO REACH
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY. AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW ALSO
DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW THE HIGH CIRCULATIONS
INTERACT, BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AGAIN GOING INTO MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF RA ARE MOVING THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE REMAINING LARGELY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
THIS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND
BECOMING GUSTY. SOME SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY. SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS AROUND HIE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO THU.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL NIGHTTIME/EARLY
MORNING FG AT KLEB, KHIE, AND KCON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON A COASTAL LOW, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS AROUND MIDDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SHARPLY TO NORTHWEST BUT
REMAIN GUSTY. I HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS INTO
THU AFTERNOON. IN CASCO BAY ONCE WINDS GO NORTHWEST SCA
CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT PENOBSCOT BAY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS BEGIN
TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
154.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CLAIR/TUBBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/TUBBS
MARINE...LEGRO/TUBBS
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