568
FXUS61 KGYX 090622
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
222 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SATURDAY UNDER FAIR SKIES. A CUT OFF LOW
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY IN WHAT WILL BE THE COLDEST
SUNNY DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 50S IN THE MTNS AND TO NEAR 60 AT THE COAST. ONLY
SIGNIFICANT ADDITION TO THE FORECAST GUIDANCE WAS TO BUMP UP
WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE BIG LAKES. THE CAA COUPLED WITH
FAVORABLE FETCH WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 4
FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG BAY OF SEBAGO AND THE BROADS ON
WINNIPESAUKEE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
TONIGHT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT RARE...THIS STRENGTH HIGH PRESSURE IS
SOMETHING WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE ROUGHLY EVERY 2 TO 5 YEARS. AS
A RESULT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP AFTER
SUNSET. SO EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE SEASON...IT WILL BE A CHILLY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW 30S TO LOW 20S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
FIRST LARGE SCALE FREEZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE WATCH
AREA....THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
FRI WILL BE LESS WINDY BUT NOT MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO
MID 30S ELSEWHERE. ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS, THE USUAL VALLEY FOG ALSO LOOKS PROMISING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS POPS UP A LITTLE BIT ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH, TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SOUTH. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL START TO APPROACH THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A SURFACE LOW STARTS TO ORGANIZE AND
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
HAS THESE TWO SYSTEMS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, EVENTUALLY PINCHING OFF THE RIDGE.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY END UP IMPACTING OUR FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS TIME AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. LOOKING AT
SOME OF THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS, THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO MAIN
SCENARIOS AT THIS TIME. THE FIRST IS A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK
(LESS RAIN, WIND, AND COASTAL IMPACTS) GIVEN STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH AND THE SECOND SCENARIO WOULD BE A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY LOW TRACK (MORE RAIN, WIND, AND COASTAL IMPACTS) WITH
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH DISPLACED A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO
THE EAST. THE FIRST SCENARIO IS ECMWF HEAVY AND THE SECOND SCENARIO
IS GEFS HEAVY WITH THE FIRST SCENARIO HAVING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME. FINALLY, LOOKING AT THE FORECAST LOW
POSITIONS FOR ALL OF THE ECMWF MEMBERS, LARGE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
APPARENT BUT IT WILL BE A PERIOD TO WATCH CLOSELY.
THE LOW WILL START TO MOVE WELL OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AS
BROAD RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE REGION, LIKELY LEADING
TO SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS BY MID TO
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THAT VFR CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD...THOUGH TONIGHT MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG ESPECIALLY
AROUND LEB. SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE AROUND 25
KT THRU MID AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAYTIME THROUGH
SUNDAY. NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
LEB, HIE, AND CON. RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A COASTAL LOW BRINGS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS UNDER GOOD
CAA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO ALSO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS AND WINDS BUILD STARTING ON SUNDAY AS A
COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
BY MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ012-013-
033.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
MEZ012>014-018>028-033.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ003>009.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NHZ003>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...HARGROVE
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