120
FXUS61 KGYX 100625
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
225 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SATURDAY UNDER FAIR SKIES. A CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL THIS MORNING. FREEZE WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY WILL BRING TEMPS UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. SOME LOW 60S ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
ZONES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A PRETTY QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND SO IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST...SO OVERALL IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. BUT SOME ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE FOOTHILLS.
BY SAT RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S AND SOME LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING OUR THINKING OF THE COASTAL LOW
THAT COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. JUST AS MUCH (IF NOT MORE) UNCERTAINTY IS APPARENT IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
BY SATURDAY EVENING, A SURFACE LOW WILL START TO GET ORGANIZED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OH/PA/NY TRI-STATE AREA. THE TRI-STATE LOW
WILL THEN START TO WRAP INTO THE COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT.
AN IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE LOW AS IT SPINS NORTH. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO MAIN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVENTUAL
TRACK WITH ONE SOLUTION BEING FARTHER SOUTH (STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH) AND ANOTHER FARTHER NORTH (WEAKER HIGH
TO OUR NORTH). KEEPING WITH THE TRENDS, THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
SCENARIO FAVORS THE SOUTHERN TRACK BUT NOT BY MUCH. FURTHER
UNCERTAINTY IS ILLUSTRATED BY THE MODELED LOW POSITIONS OF ALL
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY MONDAY MORNING, WHEN THE LOW COULD BE
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. FINALLY, FOR OUR AREA, THE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE SPREAD FOR 48-HOUR NBM PRECIPITATION (ENDING 8 AM
TUESDAY) IS VERY LARGE, WHICH IS NOT THAT SURPRISING CONSIDERING
OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. AS AN
EXAMPLE, THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND AREA WOULD
PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO RAIN AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE WOULD SUGGEST
OVER 3 INCHES. LONG STORY SHORT, WE STILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO
AS A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES ARE STILL ON THE TABLE. THE LOW
WILL MOVE WELL OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WAVE/FRONT MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME REGARDING THE POSSIBLE EASTERLY GALE
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS A LONG EASTERLY FETCH SETTLES IN FOR A FEW
DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME HIGHER TIDES.
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS SATURDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY AND THEN A BRIEF WARMUP IS
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. THAT BEING SAID, WE START TO SEE MUCH LARGER
NBM SPREAD REGARDING TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT. VERY
DRY AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG...BUT IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR LEB BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SAT MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY BUT SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT LEB, HIE, AND CON. RESTRICTIONS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN PARTICULAR ALONG THE
COAST, AS A COASTAL LOW BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND
GUSTY COASTAL WINDS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
AND THE CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TODAY. THAT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS AND WINDS BUILD STARTING ON SUNDAY AS A
COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
BY MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE WILL BE A LONG EASTERLY FETCH FOR A FEW DAYS LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY DOWN BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH THAT SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>028-
033.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ003>015.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...HARGROVE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EKSTER
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