646
FXUS61 KGYX 101752
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
152 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
SATURDAY UNDER FAIR SKIES. A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS BRINGS A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION, WHICH HELPS TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. ACROSS THE REMAINING INTERIOR, DECOUPLING IS STILL
LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AGAIN
TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT'S HARD FREEZE, MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES
ARE DONE FOR THE FALL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. FOR THE REMAINING
AREAS, INTERIOR CUMBERLAND, ANDROSCOGGIN, AND KENNEBEC COUNTY
LOOK COOL ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST TONIGHT. A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE
LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST AND BRIGHTEST DAY OF
THE WEEKEND.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM A COASTAL STORM
LOCATED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND HELP TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. 30S ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. A STRAY
SPRINKLE ALSO CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AROUND DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
15Z NBM HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE GOING FORECAST. THIS AND
THEY RESULT OF THE ENSEMBLE SUITE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGER MASS FIELDS BUT DETAILS ON THE SYSTEM EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND AGAIN WED/THU STILL HOLD DIFFERENCES.
LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CAROLINAS WITH
RAIN WIND AND BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHWARD UP THE COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR FORECAST AREA IS
STILL PROGGED TO BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM, SO
POPS AND QPF ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN NH.
THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID WIND
ISSUES OVER LAND, WITH MAX GUSTS LOOKING LIKE 25-35 KT AT THE
COAST.
THEREAFTER, SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROUGH DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA MAY
AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME WED OR THURS BUT TIMING IN THE MODELS
IN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR PREVAILS AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT LEB AND CON, WHERE VALLEY FOG
LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, BUT LESS LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY BUT SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT LEB, HIE, AND CON. RESTRICTIONS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN PARTICULAR ALONG THE
COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH, AS A COASTAL LOW BRINGS
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND GUSTY COASTAL WINDS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS AND WINDS BUILD STARTING ON SUNDAY AS A
COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
BY MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE WILL BE A LONG EASTERLY FETCH FOR A FEW DAYS LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY DOWN BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH THAT SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...EKSTER
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