524
FXUS61 KGYX 111059
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
659 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL
MIGRATE NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EARLY WEEK WILL ALSO SEE
BUILDING WINDS, SEAS, AND SURF ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
7AM UPDATE...VALLEY FOG AGAIN APPARENT ON MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A BIT LATER THAN LAST NIGHT, BUT SIMILAR LOCATIONS UP
THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE LOWER KENNEBEC VALLEY.
MODIFIED TONIGHT'S FORECAST FOG WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE
ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CIRRUS PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOLLOWING FOR THE DAY. SOUTHERN NH MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS
PASSING THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF SUN. MORNING MIXING
WILL BRING SOME BREEZE TO THE AREA AS A 925MB JET WEAKENS AND
PULLS NORTHEAST. THE GENERAL PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUED RETURN
FLOW AS COASTAL HIGH CONTINUES EAST. THIS WILL AID IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY, PUSHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WINDS WILL HAVE SLACKENED IN THE EVENING, WITH MUCH OF TONIGHT
SET TO BE CALM. DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW, HREF
DEVELOPS LOW STRATUS OVER THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP THE COAST TO THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
MORE MILD TONIGHT. IT MAY ALSO BRING FOG, DENSE IN SOME PLACES.
THIS WILL REALLY BE THE START OF A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY WEEK THAT SLOWLY ADVECTS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH WINDS AND SURF SET TO INCREASE.
SUNDAY BEGINS DRY, BUT LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO
MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE, CERTAINTY OF RAIN,
WILL TAKE TIME TO PUSH INTO THE REGION DUE TO THE STEADY
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE ALOFT, COLUMN SATURATION WILL BE UNEVEN. THIS
RESULTS IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTH TO
NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL STALL OUT FOR A
LITTLE WHILE SOMEWHERE JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW TRACKS WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH RAINFALL WE MAY SEE IN OUR AREA. THE LATEST CLUSTER
ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THERE ARE STILL TWO GENERAL SCENARIOS
(NORTH AND SOUTH TRACKS), BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SCENARIO (ECMWF MEMBERSHIP HEAVY) HAS INCREASED A BIT MORE. IT
IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY THAT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS SHIFTED
TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS
BEEN SUGGESTING FOR SEVERAL RUNS. BEING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES
OF THIS SYSTEM, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LARGE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES STILL
RANGE FROM PRETTY MUCH ZERO TO A COUPLE INCHES OR MORE. ALL
THAT SAID, THE TREND CONTINUES FOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND
FEWER IMPACTS UP OUR WAY. AS OF NOW, THE BEST CHANCES (40 TO 60
PERCENT) FOR AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHWEST MAINE. GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TRENDS,
THE EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO TEND DOWN, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LAND.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT
WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN FROM CANADA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A MODEST WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY. OTHER THAN A BREAKING STRATUS DECK IN
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NH, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH MORNING
BREEZE SUBSIDING MIDDAY. MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE NH AND ME
COAST. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN LIFR VIS DUE TO FOG EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE, BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN FOR
SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN
PARTICULAR ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH, AS A COASTAL
LOW BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND GUSTY COASTAL WINDS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. ENE FLOW INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEEK. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO POINTS OFF NH/YORK
CO, AND THEN FURTHER UP THE ME COAST SUNDAY EVENING. GALES MAY
BEGIN OFF THE NH COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS PERSISTENT WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO LARGE, SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS SUNDAY. FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS, 5 TO 6 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
EVENING.
LONG TERM...SEAS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GALES POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS INTO MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE WILL BE A LONG EASTERLY FETCH FOR A FEW DAYS LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THEIR
WAY DOWN, BUT COMBINED WITH INCREASED WAVE ACTION, SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ019>021.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...HARGROVE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EKSTER
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